Tesla Stock – 20-30% Unit Growth Expected, UBS Exceeds Consensus
Tesla Stock – UBS analysts have set their sights on Tesla’s Q4 2024 delivery numbers, which the company is expected to announce on January 2, 2025. The bank has forecasted that Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) will deliver approximately 510,000 vehicles in the fourth quarter, marking a 5% year-over-year (YoY) increase and a 10% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) increase.
This estimate is slightly below the Visible Alpha consensus, which predicts 512,000 units, but it falls within the range of investor expectations, which generally hover between 500,000 and 510,000 units. While the forecast reflects continued growth, UBS analysts emphasized that the results may not have the same impact on Tesla’s stock performance as in the past. The growing focus on artificial intelligence (AI) developments, particularly the AI-driven narrative surrounding Tesla, is expected to reduce the market’s reliance on delivery figures for determining the stock’s value.
Historically, delivery numbers have played a significant role in shaping investor sentiment and stock performance for Tesla. However, as the company’s AI advancements and other technological innovations take center stage, delivery results are expected to be seen more as a secondary factor influencing the company’s overall performance. UBS analysts noted that while deliveries will likely show growth, the market has evolved, and there may be a shift in investor priorities.
Tesla’s Energy Storage Business: A Growing Focus
In addition to vehicle deliveries, UBS has also highlighted the importance of Tesla’s energy storage business, which continues to gain traction in the global renewable energy market. For Q4 2024, UBS expects 9.1 GWh of energy storage deployments, a 32% sequential increase from the previous quarter. This would further bolster Tesla’s energy segment, which is seen as a critical component of the company’s long-term growth strategy.
However, UBS analysts also pointed out that energy storage deployments can be volatile, as the segment tends to experience lumpy growth. As a result, predictions in this area are less precise than vehicle delivery forecasts, making it challenging to provide a fully accurate outlook. Nonetheless, the overall upward trajectory of Tesla’s energy storage business reflects its expanding role in the global push toward sustainable energy solutions.
Interestingly, Visible Alpha’s projection for Tesla’s energy storage deployments is slightly higher at 9.6 GWh, suggesting that there is some variability in the forecasts provided by different analysts. Despite this, both projections indicate positive growth, which is encouraging for Tesla’s broader energy division. Investors are increasingly recognizing the importance of energy storage in Tesla’s future, especially as the company seeks to diversify its revenue streams beyond electric vehicles.
What’s Next for Tesla? Earnings Call and 2025 Outlook
Following the release of Tesla’s Q4 2024 delivery report, attention will shift to the company’s earnings call scheduled for the end of January 2025. This call will provide further insights into Tesla’s financial performance and future outlook, with investors eagerly awaiting CEO Elon Musk’s comments. UBS analysts expect that discussions during the earnings call will center around 2025 guidance and AI developments, with less emphasis on traditional financial metrics such as revenue and profits.
Tesla has already indicated that it is targeting 20-30% unit growth in 2025, which translates to a range of 2.2 million to 2.4 million units. This forecast exceeds the expectations of both UBS and the broader market consensus, which have set more modest estimates of 1.9 million and 2.0 million units, respectively. UBS analysts believe that Tesla’s ambitious growth target is achievable, with the company relying on several key factors to drive these numbers.
One of the main catalysts for this growth is expected to be the launch of new models. Tesla is preparing to release a lower-priced vehicle in early 2025, aimed at expanding its market reach and appealing to a broader consumer base. Additionally, a refreshed Model Y is also expected to hit the market, which could help Tesla maintain its competitive edge in the growing electric vehicle (EV) market.
Regional Trends: China, Europe, and U.S. Performance
UBS has also pointed out that regional performance is showing varied trends. China remains a strong growth market for Tesla, with steady expansion driven by promotions and incentives. Tesla’s sales in China continue to benefit from the country’s aggressive push toward EV adoption, as well as local production at its Shanghai Gigafactory.
In contrast, Europe has experienced some softness in recent months, primarily due to slower export growth. Rising competition in the European market and a potential slowdown in demand for EVs are contributing factors to this weaker performance. While Tesla’s dominance in Europe remains strong, the company may face increasing challenges in the region moving forward.
The U.S. market has also shown flat delivery numbers, with Tesla’s U.S. sales remaining relatively stable but not showing the same explosive growth seen in other regions. UBS noted that the U.S. market is maturing, and while Tesla maintains a strong presence, its growth trajectory may not be as robust as in earlier years.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies and stocks, particularly in micro-cap companies, are subject to significant volatility and risk. Please conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
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