Polymarket Faces Backlash Over Controversial TikTok Ban Market Resolution
Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction platform, is facing intense scrutiny after resolving a controversial prediction market about a potential TikTok ban in the United States.
The market, titled “TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?”, was concluded with a “Yes” outcome on January 20, 2025, following the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to uphold a law banning the Chinese-owned app due to national security concerns. This resolution has sparked heated criticism, with users accusing Polymarket of unfairly manipulating the results.
What Happened?
The prediction market, which saw a staggering $120 million in trading volume, centered on whether TikTok would be banned in the U.S. before May 2025. On January 19, 2025, the ban officially went into effect, with TikTok displaying a notice to users indicating that the app would no longer be accessible.
The Biden administration defended the ban, citing concerns that TikTok’s parent company, ByteDance, posed a national security risk by allegedly sharing user data with a foreign adversary.
However, the situation took a dramatic turn the following day. TikTok announced it would remain operational for an additional 75 days after former President Donald Trump intervened, temporarily pausing the ban to negotiate a potential agreement with ByteDance.
This unexpected extension left Polymarket users divided, with many arguing that the app was not genuinely “banned” since it remained accessible to most U.S. users.
Community Outrage
The resolution sparked an outcry within the Polymarket community. One user, Sky, questioned the platform’s decision:
“The ban didn’t happen, and TikTok is working fine for most Americans. Trump gave it an extension literally live. So why is it 99% Yes?”
Another user, silkroad69, defended Polymarket, arguing:
“A law banning TikTok was created and took effect on Jan. 19. The market never said anything about temporary extensions.”
Meanwhile, Spot, a frustrated bettor, labeled the resolution “disgusting” and accused the platform of being a “scam.” A petition demanding accountability for the alleged manipulation of the market has since emerged, though it has garnered fewer than 100 signatures to date.
Polymarket’s Dispute Resolution Process Under Fire
Polymarket uses UMA’s Optimistic Oracle (OO) to determine outcomes in its prediction markets. If disputes arise, they can escalate to UMA’s Data Verification Mechanism (DVM) for further review. However, in this instance, the DVM process was bypassed, and the market was resolved directly to “Yes,” fueling accusations of misconduct.
This is not the first controversy Polymarket has faced. In May 2024, users contested UMA’s decision on an Ethereum ETF market, and in June 2024, a market involving Barron Trump’s alleged connection to a memecoin caused further outrage after Polymarket overruled UMA’s decision and issued refunds against its original verdict.
Polymarket’s Future Plans
Amid the backlash, Polymarket is reportedly seeking $50 million in funding to expand its operations. The platform also plans to introduce user-validation tokens, allowing participants to help determine market outcomes more transparently.
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