Polymarket Election Bets: How the Trump Victory Sparked $3.6 Billion in Volume

Polymarket’s 2024 Election Contract Resolves After Trump’s Victory, $3.6 Billion in Bets

Polymarket- In a groundbreaking moment for both U.S. politics and decentralized prediction markets, Republican Donald Trump’s historic reelection as U.S. President marked the end of a key contract on the Polymarket platform, which saw over $3.6 billion in volume flow through its virtual marketplace. The contract, which invited users to predict the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, was officially resolved early on November 6, when Associated Press and NBC declared Trump the winner. This decision was quickly echoed by other major news outlets like Fox News, which projected Trump’s victory after he clinched crucial swing states including North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Georgia.

Polymarket Contract Resolution and the 2-Hour Dispute Period

The resolution of the election contract on Polymarket was slightly delayed due to the platform’s UMA dispute resolution system, which allows users to challenge the proposed outcome within a two-hour window by posting a bond. If disputed, UMA token holders vote on the final outcome. Once the market conditions were met and no challenges arose, the contract was resolved, confirming Trump’s victory.

Big Winners: French “Whale” and Other Major Players

The resolution of the election contract also highlighted some significant winners on the platform, with Theo, a French financial services professional, emerging as the biggest individual gainer. Theo’s total profit from the Presidential Election Contract, the Popular Vote Contract, and various swing state markets amounted to over $47.5 million. Theo’s success was partly attributed to their strategy of registering multiple accounts with pro-Trump positions, which briefly sparked controversy. Critics alleged that Theo’s approach, along with similar bets from other users, represented a form of “dark money” attempting to manipulate market sentiment.

However, in an interview with The Wall Street Journal in early November, Theo defended their position. They explained that their strategy involved making high-conviction trades, betting the majority of their liquid assets on the election outcome. The decision to keep their identity private was to avoid drawing attention from friends and family, they added.

Other Notable Wins on Polymarket: ‘zxgngl’ Takes $11.4 Million Profit

Besides Theo, another major winner was Polymarket user ‘zxgngl’, who joined the platform only recently in October 2024. Despite being a relatively new bettor on the site, ‘zxgngl’ made an impressive profit of $11.4 million, securing the second-largest payout among Polymarket users on Election Day.

Polymarket’s Role in Boosting Mainstream Awareness of Prediction Markets

The success of Polymarket’s 2024 election contract has played a pivotal role in bringing mainstream attention to prediction markets, with many analysts pointing to the platform as a more accurate and real-time forecasting tool compared to traditional polling methods. As these prediction markets continue to evolve, they are expected to become a key player in political forecasting and other fields.

However, some experts urge caution. Rajiv Sethi, Professor of Economics at Columbia University’s Barnard College, and the author of the blog Imperfect Information, pointed out the need for a more thorough and data-driven comparison between prediction markets and statistical models. “The question of whether prediction markets are more accurate than statistical models can only be answered with data, not by logic alone,” Sethi wrote in an email to CoinDesk.

Sethi’s Concerns: Transaction Observability, KYC, and Market Design

Sethi further suggested that factors such as transaction observability, KYC (Know Your Customer) requirements, participation restrictions, and position limits all play crucial roles in shaping the accuracy and reliability of prediction markets. He stressed the importance of ongoing data study to analyze these factors and refine market designs for better forecasting outcomes.

Polymarket’s Election-Related Volume and Market Sentiment

According to on-chain data from Dune Analytics, 73.8% of Polymarket’s total volume, as of early November, was generated from election-related betting, a clear indication of the immense interest in this year’s election forecast. The growing popularity of platforms like Polymarket highlights a shift toward decentralized, real-time prediction markets that bypass traditional polling mechanisms.

Potential Impact on Future Election Betting

As Polymarket has shown, the integration of blockchain technology and prediction markets can revolutionize how political outcomes are forecasted, providing a more transparent, decentralized alternative to conventional methods. However, with increasing attention comes greater scrutiny, and the future of platforms like Polymarket will depend on how they address concerns surrounding regulatory frameworks, market manipulation, and the ethical implications of high-stakes betting on political events.