JPMorgan Forecasts Bitcoin Analyzes Crucial Test Awaiting Miners During the Upcoming Halving Event
JPMorgan Forecasts Bitcoin Halving as a Stress Test for Miners
In a recent report, JPMorgan highlights that the upcoming Bitcoin halving event will pose a significant challenge for miners, as they grapple with reduced rewards and escalating production costs.
The strategists at JPMorgan Forecasts Bitcoin, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, underscore that miners with lower electricity costs are likely to fare better in adapting to the halving event, while those burdened with higher electricity costs could encounter difficulties post-halving. Essentially, the halving event will serve as a litmus test, determining miners’ capacity to adjust and maintain profitability in an evolving landscape.
The Bitcoin halving, which occurs approximately every four years, slashes the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks in half, effectively reducing the rate at which new bitcoins are generated, thus managing inflation and preserving the scarcity of Bitcoin over time. The upcoming halving will decrease the block reward from 6.25 bitcoin to 3.125 bitcoin. While the halving typically has a positive impact on the price of Bitcoin, it brings challenges for miners, as the production cost historically establishes a price floor, as per JPMorgan analysts‘ insights.
According to their bitcoin production cost model, even a mere one cent per kilowatt-hour change in electricity cost induces a substantial $4,300 change in the bitcoin production cost. Post-halving, this sensitivity is expected to double to $8,600, thereby increasing the vulnerability of higher-cost producers, as noted by the analysts. The impending halving event will undoubtedly test miners’ resilience in adapting to these shifts in costs and rewards, influencing the overall dynamics of the Bitcoin network.
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