Exponential AI Cost Decline: Artificial Intelligence Overtakes Moore’s Law!

Exponential AI Cost Decline: OpenAI’s GPT-4o Is 150x Cheaper Than GPT-4

According to OpenAI CEO Sam Altman, the cost of implementing any given level of AI decreases by about 10 times a year and has the potential to drastically lower the price of products.

The cost to use a given level of AI falls about 10x every 12 months, and lower prices lead to much more use,

Altman

When comparing the firm’s GPT-4 model in early 2023 to GPT-4o in mid-2024, Altman said that the cost has decreased by almost 150 times. He claimed that this was significantly faster than Moore’s Law, which states that an integrated circuit’s transistor count doubles roughly every two years, increasing processing power and efficiency and lowering the cost of electronic gadgets. Altman foresaw a sharp decline in the price of several things in the future.

In some ways, AI may turn out to be like the transistor economically — a big scientific discovery that scales well and that seeps into almost every corner of the economy. Right now, the cost of intelligence and the cost of energy constrain a lot of things.

Altman

Altman on AI’s Future: Lower Costs, Higher Accessibility, and Compute Budgets

Moreover, Altman warns that the cost of luxury products and other naturally scarce resources, such as land, could increase much more sharply. Additionally, he stated that he was open to ideas that may benefit everyone in the world via AI, such as allocating compute budgets. Altman underlined that if AI costs are gradually decreased, everyone may be able to utilize its potential. By 2035, he predicts, all people will have access to the same degree of intelligence as the entire globe did in 2025.

We are open to strange-sounding ideas like giving some ‘compute budget’ to enable everyone on Earth to use a lot of AI, but we can also see a lot of ways where just relentlessly driving the cost of intelligence as low as possible has the desired effect. Everyone should have access to unlimited genius to direct however they can imagine.

Altman

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