Ethereum Price Outlook: Optimism Grows Despite Historical Underperformance in October

Ethereum Price – Ethereum Futures Data Signals Potential Price Increase This Month

Ethereum Price – Ethereum has traditionally lagged behind Bitcoin in terms of price performance in October, but recent indicators from the derivatives market suggest a shift in sentiment. Analysts are seeing growing optimism around the digital asset, pointing to increased activity in the ether options market.

Historical Price Performance: Ethereum vs. Bitcoin

Historically, October has been a stronger month for Bitcoin compared to Ethereum. According to data from QCP Capital, Bitcoin has posted an average gain of 22.9% in eight of the last nine years. While Ethereum also performs well during this period, its average return is notably lower, around 5%. However, analysts at QCP Capital are observing signs of optimism for Ethereum in the near term, noting that many derivatives traders believe it could break its trend of underperformance.

Ether Call Options Surge in October

A major signal of this optimism comes from the derivatives market. QCP Capital reported a significant uptick in the number of ether call options being purchased in early October. As of now, there are over 63,600 ether call option contracts, valued at $167 million, set to expire on Oct. 11. Additionally, another 26,200 call option contracts worth $69 million are due to expire on Oct. 18, according to data from Deribit.

The most actively traded options are ether call options with a $2,800 strike price, which have seen the highest volume over the past 24 hours. Notably, both the Oct. 11 and Oct. 18 expirations have a significantly lower number of put options, indicating a bullish sentiment among traders.

Bullish Sentiment in the Ether Futures Market

The growing demand for ether call options reflects increasing near-term optimism for the digital asset. Data from Coinglass supports this sentiment, showing that ether’s open interest-weighted funding rate has been trending positively. The funding rate has remained in positive territory since the broader market sell-off triggered by the Bank of Japan’s unexpected interest rate hike in late July, which caused a global stock market downturn.

This shift in market structure is seen as a bullish signal, particularly as the open-interest-weighted funding rate for ether has not dipped into negative territory since before Sept. 18, around the time of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s dovish pivot and subsequent interest rate cut.

Ether’s Q4 Historical Trends

According to Bitfinex analysts, while ether often delivers solid returns in the fourth quarter, the wider altcoin market tends to show more varied performance. Historically, the first quarter has been the strongest for both ether and altcoins, with the second quarter occasionally producing strong results.

However, the historical data for ether and altcoins is limited compared to Bitcoin. Bitfinex analysts highlight that ether has only been trading since the second quarter of 2016, and many altcoins in the top 100 by market cap were only created in the last three to four years.

Current Ether Price and Market Dominance

As of 07:49 a.m. ET, Ether is trading at $2,638, having gained over 1.4% in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin dominance stands at 53.4%, while Ether’s market dominance is at 13.4%, according to CoinGecko.

FAQ: Ethereum’s Price Performance and Derivatives Market in October