Election News – How Decision Desks Use Data and Models to Predict Election Outcomes
Election News – On Tuesday night, millions of Americans will be glued to their screens, eagerly awaiting the results of the election. While the race may be decided in real-time, it could take days for every vote to be counted. So, how do news outlets determine a winner before the final ballot is tallied? It all comes down to the election decision desks, teams of experts who use a combination of data, statistical models, and voter surveys to predict outcomes, sometimes even before the last vote is cast.
In this article, we’ll break down how these decision desks work, why they’re reliable, and how they help news organizations provide early calls on elections, even during tight races.
Understanding Election Decision Desks: The Backbone of Election Calls
To understand how news organizations call a winner, we need to first explore the role of the decision desk. These teams of political scientists, statisticians, pollsters, and reporters are responsible for analyzing large volumes of data to project who will win each race, from local elections to presidential contests.
Unlike in years past, when news outlets relied heavily on exit polling, modern decision desks now combine raw vote counts from precincts, counties, and states with sophisticated statistical models. These models are based on historical trends and a wide range of voter demographics, including geographic location, age, gender, and party affiliation.
This sophisticated method allows news organizations like Fox News, CNN, the Associated Press (AP), and others to project winners even when not all ballots have been counted.
The Key Methods: AP VoteCast vs. NEP Surveys
The two most prominent systems used by news organizations to project elections are AP VoteCast and the National Election Pool (NEP) system.
- AP VoteCast: Used by the Associated Press and Fox News, this system debuted in 2018 and has been used in every national election since. VoteCast does not rely on exit polls; instead, it conducts large-scale online surveys of randomly selected registered voters to capture data. This method allows for a more representative sample of the population, providing a clearer picture of voter intent and behavior.
- NEP Surveys: The National Election Pool, which supplies data to ABC News, CBS News, CNN, and NBC News, uses a different method. It conducts three types of surveys: Election Day exit polls, early voting exit polls, and mail-in voting surveys. The NEP has long been the standard for major broadcast networks, though it’s important to note that the AP and Fox News were once part of this group before splitting in 2016.
Each system uses statistical models to analyze the incoming data and predict outcomes with high confidence. These models help news organizations understand how likely it is that a candidate will win in a given precinct or state, even before the final tally is completed.
How Do Decision Desks Call a Winner?
When it comes time to make a call, decision desks follow strict criteria to ensure the accuracy of their projections. Anthony Salvanto, CBS News’s executive director of elections and surveys, explains that the decision team will examine “all of the models we are running, consult with the networks’ decision teams, and consider any possible data issues.” The goal is to ensure that the likelihood of being wrong is as low as possible.
Confidence Levels: How Reliable Are the Calls?
In close races, like the 2020 presidential election, decision desks are particularly cautious. As Rob Farbman, executive vice president at Edison Research, explained, news organizations generally won’t make a call unless they are 99.5% confident that one candidate cannot catch up. Similarly, the AP only calls an election once they are sure that the trailing candidate has no viable path to victory.
This level of confidence ensures that, even in tight races, the predictions made by decision desks are highly reliable.
Why Early Calls Matter: Speed and Accuracy in Election Reporting
While it’s important to wait for all ballots to be counted, early calls based on thorough analysis and models can give voters a good idea of the results, even before the final count. Decision desks rely on the reported vote counts and also track where the outstanding votes are coming from—whether it’s mail-in ballots, early voting, or Election Day votes.
For example, in the 2020 election, Fox News made an early call in Arizona for Joe Biden, which sparked a lot of controversy at the time. But it was ultimately proven to be accurate, underscoring the confidence that decision desks have in their models, even when results are too close to call.
Handling Close Races: What Happens When Results Are Tight?
In cases where the vote count is especially close, like the presidential race in 2024 may be, decision desks must analyze not just the raw vote count but also voting trends. Are the remaining votes likely to skew toward one candidate or another based on where they are coming from? News organizations break down this data by county, city, and even neighborhood, helping viewers understand how the race is progressing in real-time.
The Challenges of Election Calls: Mistakes Do Happen, But They’re Rare
Despite the sophisticated methods used by decision desks, mistakes can happen. The most famous case was in 2000 when networks initially called Florida for Al Gore, only to retract the call after further analysis. These types of errors are rare, but when they do occur, news organizations act quickly to correct them.
As Salvanto from CBS News emphasizes, “We will tell you if our models show that it’s a toss-up or that it’s leading one way or the other.” This transparency is key to building trust with the audience and ensuring that viewers understand the data behind the calls.
The Role of Voter Surveys and Exit Polling in Election Calls
Although modern election calls rely heavily on raw vote counts and statistical models, surveys of voters still play a crucial role. Voter surveys, including exit polls and early voting polls, help decision desks understand how people voted and why. This data is especially valuable in tight races, where the profile of the remaining uncounted ballots can make a difference in predicting the winner.
Trusting the Process: Why You Can Rely on Election Calls
Election calls are not made in haste. Decision desks are highly cautious, using a combination of historical data, statistical analysis, and real-time vote counts to project the most likely outcome. The goal is to ensure that the results you see on election night (and in the days that follow) are as accurate as possible. As David Scott, vice president at the AP, says, “We don’t call an election until we’re confident that there’s no chance the trailing candidate can catch up.”
While mistakes can occasionally happen, the methods used by decision desks are incredibly accurate and have been honed over decades. So, when you’re watching the returns roll in on Election Night, you can be confident that the projections you see are grounded in a vast amount of data and statistical analysis.
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