VanEck’s Matthew Sigel on US Cryptocurrency Regulation and Solana ETF Prospects

VanEck’s Matthew Sigel on US Cryptocurrency Regulation and Solana ETF Prospects

Matthew Sigel, head of research at VanEck, recently discussed the regulatory landscape for cryptocurrencies in the US following the firm’s submission for a Solana spot ETF.

Spot ETFs: A New Financial Instrument

Spot ETFs are gaining traction in the US, providing institutional investors with a way to access crypto assets within the country’s strict regulatory framework.

Insights on Solana ETF Approval from VanEck

Sigel expressed optimism about the approval of a Solana ETF, drawing parallels with the positive progress of Ethereum ETF applications, as noted by SEC Chair Gary Gensler. Sigel believes that the characteristics qualifying ETH as a commodity are also applicable to SOL.

“If these products (ETH ETFs) are allowed to trade, it confirms that Ethereum is a commodity. The same should hold true for Solana,” Sigel stated in an interview with Sonali Basak and Tim Stenovec on Bloomberg Crypto.

Sigel argued that Solana’s absence of a futures market, unlike Bitcoin and Ethereum, should not be a barrier. He suggested the SEC could use the 19b4 forms employed for Bitcoin spot ETFs approval in January, instead of focusing on the existence of a regulated futures market for Solana. This approach was similarly taken for ETH ETF applications.

Sigel also pointed out the existence of various other ETFs, such as those for shipping, uranium, and power, which are not as relevant, calling for a shift in the regulatory environment in Washington. He emphasized that the final decision lies with the SEC chair.

“It all depends on the SEC chair. If Gensler remains in position, it won’t happen unless he is directed to treat this asset class differently,” Sigel remarked.

Political Influences on Crypto Regulation

Expectations are that a change in administration could benefit the crypto sector. This view is shared by analysts from Galaxy Digital and Bloomberg, with Eric Balchunas noting the political and regulatory challenges.

“Yes, the odds of a SOL ETF being approved in the next 12 months are tied to the likelihood of a change in POTUS, and the chances of both are higher today than they were yesterday. However, we are not providing exact numbers yet; it’s too early,” Balchunas commented.

Geoffrey Kendrick, head of FX and digital assets research at Standard Chartered Bank, echoed similar sentiments for Bitcoin, predicting that BTC could reach $100,000 by the US presidential election in November. However, this forecast depends on President Joe Biden continuing his candidacy beyond August 4, the registration deadline in Ohio.

Solana’s Potential Market Dominance

Sigel highlighted VanEck’s expertise in creating intelligent investment products, suggesting that Solana could lead in market share among blockchains. A Solana ETF could reinforce this position, with the prospect of such an ETF already increasing SOL’s appeal among traders and investors.

“I’m working on my portfolio; the final price won’t be set until next year. My plan includes stocks and an ETF (Palantir and Tesla, I already have the former), BTC, Solana, gold, and overnight money,” an investor mentioned on X (formerly Twitter).

If the SEC adopts a first-come, first-served approach, the Solana ETF might launch before the Ethereum ETF, given VanEck’s early filing. Sigel emphasized this possibility, noting VanEck’s precedence in filing for both ETH and SOL ETFs.

Meanwhile, changes in the regulatory landscape are becoming evident, particularly among elected officials. Several Democrats are supporting pro-crypto legislation, which is seen as a positive step, though some speculate it may be a strategic move as presidential campaigns gain momentum.