Crypto Prices Slide as Bitcoin and Ether React to US Inflation Concerns
The European morning saw a quiet crypto market as the U.S. dollar remained strong ahead of a crucial inflation report, owing to a cautious reevaluation of the likelihood of large Fed interest rate cuts. Although somewhat above the overnight low of $60,400, Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market value, was nevertheless down more than 2.25 percent in a single day, trading at $60,613. In line with this, Ether’s price moved down, closing at $2,386 down 2.83%.
Market Sees 85% Chance of November Rate Cut as Crypto Faces Dollar Pressure
Instead of 65% a week earlier, traders were allocating an 85% chance to the Fed reducing interest rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on November 7, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. Markets then estimated that, after the first decrease in September, there was a 35 percent probability the Fed would make another 50 basis points by year’s end. The U.S. exceptionalism narrative was reinvigorated by Friday’s massive nonfarm jobs report, which prompted traders to reevaluate their expectations for more rapid rate cuts.
The Fed’s September meeting minutes, which were made public on Wednesday, revealed disagreements among policymakers on the appropriate level of aggressiveness. According to the minutes, a significant majority of participants supported cutting by half a percentage point, while some were hesitant to go that far.
Crypto sentiment has moved back into the fear zone (39), reinforcing the contrast with 72 (greed) in equities. This dynamic is easily explained by the appreciation of the dollar and the increased attractiveness of bonds, which reduces institutional traction in bitcoin.
Alex Kuptsikevich, a senior market analyst at FxPro
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