Trump Election Odds Spike to 99% After Major $3M Bet
Data reveals that earlier Friday, Republican Donald Trump‘s chances of winning the presidency surged to 99% for one entity on Polymarket as their continuous purchases caused a minor mispricing in the order book. In a little time, the GCorttell93 account spent more than $3 million on more than 4.5 million Trump contracts in the Presidential Election Winner 2024 market. However, due to the way the order book works, a $275,000 tranche was filled at 99% odds, which is greater than the 63% chance that was offered at the time.
Polymarket’s $2.2 Billion Election Bet: How Blockchain-Based Odds Reflect Market Sentiment?
However, because Polymarket operates on a blockchain-based order book that records all the buy (bids) and sell (asks) orders for shares in an outcome, the price of shares in any outcome reflects the market’s current belief in the likelihood of that outcome. For example, if a ‘Yes’ share for an event costs $0.60, the market interprets this as a 60% chance of that event occurring. These odds are dynamic and change with each trade.
The lowest price at which someone is prepared to sell is known as an ask, whereas the greatest price someone is willing to pay for a share is represented by a bid. In addition to offering liquidity, this mechanism permits price discovery. Limit orders allow users to indicate the price at which they are willing to purchase or sell; if there is no match, the order may not execute right away. A market buy, however, can result in bids being filled at significantly higher rates.
Because it shows where other traders are eager to deal, the order book enables everyone to see the level of market interest at various price points. This aids in figuring out the actual market value of any wager. With more than $2.2 billion in transactions as of Friday, the election winner bet is the largest Polymarket by traded volume. The odds are 63% for Trump and 36% for Democrat Kamala Harris, according to traders.
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