The Polymarket Election Prediction Places Trump Ahead of Harris
With the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket, former US President Donald Trump now has a 50.8% probability of winning the next election, higher than that of current Vice President Kamala Harris, who has 48.4%. However, the national polling average from the New York Times, which has Harris leading Trump by 49% to 47%, is not the same as Polymarket’s estimate.
After incumbent President Joe Biden withdrew from the race in July, the stakes between Trump and Harris have shifted back and forth on the $1.3 billion Polymarket wager. Although betting for Trump’s victory increased this month, Harris led Polymarket for a considerable amount of September.
Musk Debuts at Trump Rally in Butler, Calls Trump Key to Preserving U.S. Democracy
Elon Musk made his debut at a Trump rally on Saturday in Butler, Pennsylvania, the site of the former president’s narrow escape from an attempted murder. According to an AP News article, Musk referred to Trump as the only presidential contender who could maintain American democracy while donning headgear bearing the phrase Make America Great Again.
Trump now leading Kamala by 3% in betting markets. More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line,
Throughout the 2024 presidential election, cryptocurrency gained major attention because of Trump’s consistent endorsement of NFTs, DeFi, and cryptocurrency. Following weeks of silence, Harris finally stated last month that she plans to support the expansion of digital assets. Although Harris has stated that “crypto wins no matter what happens” in the upcoming election, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan told The Block last week that Harris actually creates more uncertainty for the industry.
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