Election-Driven Bitcoin Volatility: How the U.S. Election Could Shape Bitcoin’s Future?
The results of November’s U.S. presidential election could determine the destiny of the industry, according to experts at research firm Bernstein. By the end of Q4, experts predict that bitcoin will have recovered its previous highs and be trading close to the $80,000–$90,000 area, should Republican nominee Donald Trump win.
They do, however, project that bitcoin will break through the current $50,000 level and return to test the $30,000–$40,000 zone where the spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds movement started, should current Vice President Kamala Harris win. The analysts gave their explanation for the gap by stating that, despite efforts to engage with both political spectrums, the Trump side has shown the cryptocurrency sector more warmth.
While crypto industry leaders have been more open-minded with the Harris campaign, and are hoping for a more constructive policy, we expect the delta between the two political outcomes to be wide.
the analysts
Crypto Investors Eye Trump’s Potential Victory as Harris Remains Silent on Digital Assets
The researchers observed that there has also been a significant shift in the clarity and tone of crypto policy. Trump has made a point of calling the United States the Bitcoin and crypto capital of the world, bringing up the topic in several speeches and laying out plans to do so. These include designating a national strategic bitcoin reserve, making the country a powerhouse in bitcoin mining, and nominating an SEC head who is supportive of the industry. Harris, on the other hand, has never mentioned cryptocurrencies in any of her speeches or policy declarations.
According to the experts, the removal of risk hurdles for financial institutions to participate in the digital asset market might facilitate innovation and help digital assets compete with traditional assets for institutional flows. On the decentralized prediction site Polymarket, the odds for the US presidential election have recently reversed, with Trump leading Harris by five percentage points with a 52% chance of winning versus 47% for Harris. Data from national surveys is still inconsistent, though.
Elections remain hard to call, but if you are long crypto here, you are likely taking a Trump trade,
the analysts
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