Crypto Market- Analyzing Bitcoin’s Performance Post-Election Cycles
Crypto Market– The CoinDesk 20 Index currently sits at 1,908.58, reflecting a modest increase of +1.34%. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $61,001.69, down slightly by -0.04%, while Ether (ETH) has seen a gain of +0.74%, now valued at $2,410.36. In the broader market, the S&P 500 has dipped to 5,780.05 (-0.21%), but gold remains steady at $2,640.19, showing an increase of +0.28%. The Nikkei 225 is up by +0.57%, reaching 39,605.80.
Market Reaction to Inflation Data
After a 4% drop during U.S. trading hours on Thursday, Bitcoin managed to rebound and trade above the $61,000 mark on Friday. The cryptocurrency initially fell to $59,000 following a U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report that indicated higher-than-expected inflation rates for September.
This news dampened expectations for another 50 basis-point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month. Following this recovery, Bitcoin is now approximately 0.25% higher than it was 24 hours ago. The overall digital asset market has shown stronger gains, with the CoinDesk 20 Index recording a rise of 1.65%. Notably, XRP and DOGE have led these gains, adding around 2.5% and 2%, respectively.
Trump’s Political Comeback?
In political news, Donald Trump’s chances of making a return to the White House have surged, reaching a two-month high on the prediction market site Polymarket. Traders now give him a 55.8% likelihood of winning against Vice President Kamala Harris, who stands at 43.8%. Over $1.6 billion has been wagered on the upcoming November election.
Trump’s odds have risen significantly since President Joe Biden announced he would not seek reelection, potentially clearing the path for Harris. Another prediction platform, Kalshi, which recently received permission to list contracts related to U.S. elections, also shows Trump leading with 52% against Harris’ 48%.
Bitnomial’s Legal Challenge Against the SEC
In the cryptocurrency sector, exchange Bitnomial has filed a lawsuit against the SEC, asserting that the regulator has overstepped its jurisdiction in attempting to regulate a proposed XRP futures contract alongside the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
According to a filing submitted to the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Illinois, Bitnomial argues that the futures contracts are solely under the CFTC’s authority and that the SEC’s involvement would unnecessarily complicate their regulatory responsibilities. The exchange had previously self-certified that the XRP futures did not violate CFTC regulations on August 9. In its legal documents, Bitnomial stated, Bitnomial disagrees with the SEC’s view that XRP is an investment contract and, therefore, a security, and that XRP Futures are thus security futures.
Bitcoin’s Historical Performance
A notable chart presented today illustrates Bitcoin’s price performance in the aftermath of the 2012, 2016, and 2020 U.S. presidential elections. Historically, Bitcoin has seen an average gain of over 4,000% within 400 days following these elections. Analysts at ETC Group noted that past U.S. election cycles have aligned closely with Bitcoin Halving events and U.S. business cycle troughs, which have likely driven Bitcoin’s remarkable performance during the last three election cycles. As we approach another election, analysts suggest we may see a similar alignment this time around.
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