Bitcoin Resilience- Why Analysts Believe October is Crucial for Bitcoin
Bitcoin Resilience– Bitcoin has experienced a 6% drop since September 30, a trend that Quinn Thompson, Chief Investment Officer at Lekker Capital, views as an ideal chance for investors to accumulate more BTC. In an October 3 post on X, Thompson asserted that purchasing Bitcoin at its current price range around $61,000 is a no-brainer, pointing to a significant shift in the macro backdrop of the crypto market compared to previous declines.
Historical Context: Understanding Bitcoin’s Price Action
Thompson referenced Bitcoin’s price movements since March 5, when it reached an all-time high of $73,700. He identified three previous instances where Bitcoin’s price fell sharply below its 200-day moving average—a key technical indicator that traders use to assess mid-term asset strength. In this latest situation, however, BTC rebounded sharply from the 200-day moving average, indicating a clear invalidation on the back of a 180-degree shift in the macro backdrop, which may suggest an impending upward price movement.
I don’t usually give very short-term views, but it seems like a no-brainer to be bidding in this area, Thompson added.
Geopolitical Tensions and Market Reactions
Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly escalating conflicts in the Middle East, have unsettled markets, causing risk assets like Bitcoin to sell off. This was further compounded by concerns regarding the strength of the U.S. economy and uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. elections in November. Amid these factors, mentions of Uptober—a term often associated with October’s historically bullish crypto price action—have sharply declined on social media platforms as market sentiment continues to weaken.
A Potential Rebound: The Case for Uptober
Echoing Thompson’s views, other analysts suggest that the current lack of optimism could present a golden opportunity for a short-term rebound. Santiment founder Maksim Balashevich remarked, Uptober excitement wanes as the market dips, which does open the door for a rebound. Whether the bigger downtrend is over remains to be seen.
Historically, October has been a favorable month for Bitcoin, averaging over 20% gains in the last 11 years, although most of these gains tend to materialize later in the month. In the early days of October 2023, Bitcoin experienced a 7% decline, hitting a low of $26,650. However, it later surged nearly 30% within two weeks, closing the month at $34,500. This history has led some traders to speculate about the possibility of a sharp upward move as the month progresses.
Leave a comment