Bitcoin Price Under $69k as U.S. Election Looms: Will Volatility Spark a BTC Rally?
Bitcoin Price – As the United States presidential election unfolds, Bitcoin’s price could experience heightened volatility, a development that analysts are largely viewing as a positive sign for its future price trajectory. Despite being subdued under its previous all-time high of $69,000, Bitcoin’s price action has been relatively calm, with analysts from Bitfinex suggesting that the low volatility observed prior to the election results points to cautious market sentiment.
Bitcoin’s Price Calm Before the Election Storm
At 8:05 AM UTC on election day, Bitcoin (BTC) was still hovering well below its record high of $69,000, signaling a period of market indecisiveness. The current low volatility is attributed to investors remaining cautious while waiting for the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. According to Bitfinex analysts, this subdued price movement is typical in times of uncertainty, with many investors choosing to stay on the sidelines until the election results are clearer.
However, Bitfinex analysts also pointed out that increased volatility following the election could have a positive impact on Bitcoin’s price. As they noted:
“If the expected volatility fails to materialize, it may indicate a more substantial issue at play and a much deeper correction for BTC on the lower timeframes. In terms of the options market, apathy to price movements often reflects a more bearish sentiment than strong put buying.”
Trump’s Victory Could Catalyze a Bitcoin Rally
A potential win by former President Donald Trump could provide a strong boost to Bitcoin’s price. Trump has generally been seen as a pro-crypto candidate, and market sentiment seems to align with this view, suggesting that his victory could spark the next Bitcoin rally.
According to Sygnum analysts, this potential price surge could still occur regardless of the election’s outcome. They explained that the market is already pricing in expectations of positive regulatory and legislative developments in the U.S. once the new president takes office in January. They added:
“[Post-election] the market will continue its upward trajectory in anticipation of the positive regulatory and legislative developments in the US once the new president takes office next January. This is likely to be the case irrespective of the election outcome; however, as market sentiment favors a Trump win, the rally may be more pronounced under this scenario.”
Bitcoin’s October Surge and the “Trump Trade” Phenomenon
Bitcoin’s price saw a significant surge in October, coming just $200 shy of its all-time high, reaching $73,600 on October 29. This rally has been widely referred to as the “Trump Pump,” with many linking it to rising odds of a Trump victory. As Bitcoin prices surged, it seemed to align with increasing speculation regarding the former president’s chances of winning.
However, the so-called “Trump trade” could come to an end after the elections, according to Bitfinex analysts. They suggested:
“Our base case has remained that the ‘Trump Trade’ only pertains to Bitcoin as far as pre-election speculation is concerned.”
Other analysts believe that Bitcoin’s price has acted as a proxy for the anticipation of a potential Trump victory. Despite this, the current rally lacks the macroeconomic fundamentals necessary to push Bitcoin to a new all-time high. Investors might see a return to more stable price movements following the election, with the possibility of diminishing volatility afterward.
The Altcoin Market Faces Further Downside
Regardless of the election outcome, the broader altcoin market—which includes all cryptocurrencies outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH)—is expected to face further downside pressure in the short term. Many altcoins, especially those outside the top 10 by market cap, have already experienced significant losses, and analysts expect this trend to continue post-election.
Bitfinex analysts noted that the altcoin market could experience further declines relative to Bitcoin. They explained:
“We believe that the altcoin market may experience further declines relative to Bitcoin in the mid-term, primarily due to the apathy of speculators. This general disinterest among investors suggests that upward momentum in altcoins is unlikely without a significant catalyst.”
While analysts are generally optimistic about the potential for a future altcoin season, the potential for massive returns may be weaker this cycle compared to previous altcoin rallies. Investors may need to be patient before seeing major movements in the altcoin sector.
Bitcoin and Altcoins: What’s Next for Investors?
As the dust settles from the election, Bitcoin’s price trajectory will likely depend on the unfolding political and economic landscape. If former President Trump wins, the market may see a renewed bullish phase for Bitcoin, as investors anticipate favorable regulatory changes. On the other hand, should Kamala Harris secure the presidency, Bitcoin could still experience growth, though the rally might not be as pronounced.
For altcoin investors, it may be prudent to take a more cautious approach, as the short-term outlook remains uncertain. As Bitcoin continues to lead the market in terms of stability and growth potential, altcoins will likely require additional catalysts to experience a strong rally.
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