Bitcoin Price- What Factors Are Driving Bitcoin’s Price Action?
Bitcoin Price– Bitcoin is just two weeks away from potentially marking its longest-ever sideways trading period since the April halving, a situation that has left bullish investors feeling disheartened as they anticipated a significant rally in the last quarter of the year.
A Long-Lasting Stalemate
As noted by CryptoQuant founder Ki Young-Ju in a recent post on X, 285 days have passed since the bitcoin halving. If there is no bull market in 14 days, this will mark the longest sideways post-halving in history. Halvings, which occur approximately every four years, reduce the block rewards given to miners and have historically been linked to substantial price increases in the months following the event.
Typically, prices are driven upwards as fewer new Bitcoins enter the market, provided that demand remains steady or increases. Prior to the April 14 halving, BTC soared above $73,000, leading many to set optimistic targets, some even forecasting a price as high as $160,000 by year-end. However, since then, Bitcoin has fluctuated largely between $59,000 and $65,000, edging closer to a 300-day sideways trading record established in 2016.
Influencing Factors Behind the Price Action
The recent stagnation in Bitcoin’s price has been attributed to various factors, including uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections and a rise in U.S. Treasury yields. Augustine Fan, head of insights at SOFA, commented on this trend, stating, The higher bond yield move and SPX at record highs are helping to push USD higher, but it is coming at the expense of crypto, where BTC is back to hovering at around the 60k level again.
Additionally, the announcement from the defunct Mt. Gox regarding an extended repayment deadline to October 2025 could alleviate some short-term supply pressures, but Fan believes Bitcoin will likely remain in a holding pattern as the election draws closer.
The Impact of Political Landscape on Bitcoin
The political environment is another key factor affecting Bitcoin’s trajectory. Republican candidate Donald Trump is often seen as crypto-friendly, with connections to new decentralized finance initiatives such as World Liberty Finance. In contrast, the Democratic Party has generally been perceived as less favorable toward the cryptocurrency market. A Republican victory in the upcoming elections is widely believed to bolster Bitcoin prices.
For Bitcoin to shift from its current range into a bullish breakout, it needs to break and sustain a price above $69,000. CoinDesk market analyst Omkar Godbole states that such a breakout would signify a resumption of the broader uptrend from October 2023 lows, redirecting attention toward the $100,000 target that options traders anticipate.
Currently, Bitcoin is transitioning out of a traditionally bearish period seen in August and September, when investor activity typically slows, and into a historically bullish October. CoinDesk analysis suggests that most gains in October tend to materialize in the latter half of the month, especially after October 16.
Nevertheless, market strains persist. Earlier this week, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) filed charges against multiple market-making and trading firms, raising questions about whether the crypto market may face additional challenges in the weeks leading up to the November elections.
FAQs
Why is Bitcoin currently in a sideways market?
Bitcoin is in a sideways market primarily due to uncertainty surrounding the U.S. elections and rising Treasury yields. This has led to a balance between buying and selling pressures, causing prices to fluctuate within a narrow range rather than moving upward.
What does the Bitcoin halving event signify for its price?
Bitcoin halving events occur approximately every four years and reduce the rewards given to miners. Historically, these events have been associated with significant price increases, often resulting in hundreds of percent gains in the months following the halving. However, the current market conditions are showing prolonged sideways movement, raising questions about future price behavior.
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