ARK Invest: Bitcoin Futures Market in Contango, Less Speculative Pressure Despite High Prices
Given that futures prices are still high and the market is in a state of contango, bitcoin derivatives are showing indications of cautious confidence among investors for additional gains in the upcoming year. According to MarketWatch data, December contracts on the CME traded at $91,355 on Wednesday, while longer-dated front-month contracts, such as June 2025, hit $95,670 versus a spot price of $90,570.
According to ARK Invest’s research this week, the Bitcoin futures market, which has historically indicated speculative pressure while in contango, looks less overbought than it did at earlier highs this year. When in contango, the futures price of Bitcoin is trading above the current spot price. In essence, investors are paying more to buy Bitcoin in the future, which is usually the result of optimistic market sentiment and rising price expectations.
Bitcoin Futures Steady as Contango Narrows, Indicating Less Speculative Pressure
When Bitcoin was close to $71,000 in early 2024, futures on offshore platforms were 30% higher than spot, a figure that ARK characterized as “speculative.” However, despite the recent price increase, contango on those platforms had decreased to about 11% by October, indicating less speculative excess.
Compared to earlier in 2024, the market appears less overbought now,
ARK
The steady rise in prices across Bitcoin futures contracts, which culminated in December 2025 prices over $100,000, indicates that traders are cautiously optimistic about the long-term direction of the cryptocurrency. According to ARK, the market’s more measured sentiment is indicated by the contango‘s shortening, which may sustain current price levels if speculation is kept in check.
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