Bitcoin Set for Gains After $65,200 Break, But Analysts Warn of Economic Downturn

Fed Rate Cut Boosts Risk Assets, But Caution Urged as Economic Downturn Looms

Since the Fed’s announcement, risk assets have increased in value, suggesting that markets view the rate cut as a normalization step. Analysts predict that after Bitcoin breaks beyond the $65,200 barrier, gains will increase. On the other hand, at least three indicators show that the bulls should exercise care since there is an impending economic downturn.

Rising Unemployment in Over 57% of U.S. States Signals Looming Economic Slowdown

As of August, more than 57% of states had higher rates of unemployment than the previous month and the same period the previous year, according to data tracked by MacroMicro from the U.S. Household Survey, which monitors the unemployment rate in all 50 states, Washington, D.C., and Puerto Rico. A significant economic slowdown, if not a full-blown recession, is possible in the months ahead due to the fact that most states are seeing an increase in the unemployment rate. This increases the danger of lower income, consumer spending and investment, and a fall in company and consumer confidence.

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Recession Warning: Leading Economic Index Hits Lowest Point Since 2016

The Leading Economic Index (LEI) of the Conference Board dropped to 100.2 in August, the lowest level since October 2016. There was a recession signal raised when the index declined for the sixth month in a row. The LEI is made up of several indicators that look ahead, including stock prices, the ISM new orders index, the average weekly hours worked in manufacturing, the average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance, and the leading credit index. The index is frequently monitored to spot changes in the direction of the economy and pivotal moments in the value of assets.

Gold Surpasses Oil by 40 Points: Largest Spread Since 2020 Signals Potential Recession

Source of data MacroMicro reports that the spread between gold futures and brent oil futures has increased by more than 35% this year to about 40 points, the largest level since 2020. While oil is correlated with global demand and economic activity, gold is a safe haven asset and an inflation hedge. Therefore, it is commonly believed that gold’s sustained outperformance over oil indicates an impending recession in the economy.

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