Crypto Market Alert: Bitcoin Faces 26% Drop, But Is It Likely?

Crypto Market Alert- Could BTC Drop to $75K Before a Massive Rally?

Crypto Market Alert– Bitcoin’s price could potentially decline by nearly 26% in the first quarter of 2025, reaching around $75,000, according to crypto analyst Dr. Sean Dawson. However, other market commentators remain skeptical about such a drop.

Probability of Bitcoin Falling Below $75K Rises

In a Jan. 28 market report, Dawson noted that the probability of Bitcoin dipping below $75,000 by March had increased to 9.2%, up from 7.2% in the past 24 hours. He attributed this to Bitcoin’s at-the-money implied volatility rising from 52% to 76%, indicating a surge in demand for put options as traders seek protection against downside risks.

Market Volatility and Bitcoin’s Performance

Bitcoin briefly dropped 6.5% on Jan. 27, reaching $97,906, following a broader market downturn triggered by China-based AI project DeepSeek’s latest model release. However, Bitcoin quickly rebounded and was trading at $102,100 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.

Dawson noted that the increase in probability for a Bitcoin decline reflects a shift toward bearish sentiment as traders react to heightened uncertainty.

Bitcoin’s Ties to Broader Market Trends

Bitfinex analysts highlighted Bitcoin’s price movements aligning with broader stock market trends, stating:

Bitcoin’s price is less a standalone reflection of its market fundamentals and more tied to broader macroeconomic shifts, particularly in risk sentiment.

They added that Bitcoin is no longer an independent digital asset but now closely follows broader risk asset trends.

Arthur Hayes Predicts Potential Pullback

Meanwhile, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes suggested that Bitcoin could briefly retreat to the $70,000–$75,000 range, potentially triggering a mini financial crisis. Hayes speculated that such a scenario might lead to renewed money printing, which could drive Bitcoin’s price toward $250,000 by the end of 2025.

As the crypto market continues to react to economic shifts, investors remain watchful of Bitcoin’s next move.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies and stocks, particularly in micro-cap companies, are subject to significant volatility and risk. Please conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.