BTC Technical Analysis: Can Bitcoin Price Hit $250K Before 2024 Ends?

BTC Technical Analysis: Can Bitcoin Price Hit $250K Before 2024 Ends?

The short answer to this question is a definitive “No.” Despite Bitcoin experiencing a 15% dip from its all-time high (ATH) of $108,421.80, the idea of BTC rallying 163% from $95,000 to reach $250,000 in the final days of 2024 is simply unrealistic. Let’s break down why this scenario is improbable.

Why Bitcoin Won’t Hit $250K in 2024

For Bitcoin to reach $250,000, it would require an astronomical surge of 163%. Such a significant jump in just a matter of days is highly unlikely, given the current market conditions. To put things into perspective, Bitcoin’s year-to-date (YTD) growth stands at 156%. Expecting a similar increase in such a short timeframe is not only overly ambitious but also devoid of the market fundamentals to support such a move.

The demand necessary to fuel this kind of rally does not exist in either the crypto or traditional financial markets. Even if there were a sudden surge in capital inflows, it is improbable that this demand would focus solely on Bitcoin in such a short span of time.

BTC Technical Analysis: What’s a Realistic Outlook for 2024?

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin price may rebound in the coming days. On the four-hour chart, BTC formed a local bottom at $92,230 on December 20, followed by a higher low at $92,465. This price action indicates a potential recovery rally is underway.

If the higher low holds, Bitcoin’s next target could be the value area high (VAH) at $100,000. Breaking past this psychological barrier could pave the way for BTC to test the 261.8% Fibonacci extension level at $115,881. Such a move would represent a 20% rally from current levels—an achievable gain within the remaining timeframe of 2024.

Best-Case Scenarios for Bitcoin

In an extremely bullish case, Bitcoin could surge to $120,000 or even $150,000 before the year concludes. However, these targets represent the upper limit of what BTC could realistically achieve based on current technical indicators and market dynamics.

Conversely, if Bitcoin fails to maintain support at the value area low (VAL) of $90,900, the bearish scenario comes into play. A breakdown below this level could trigger an 11% decline, sending BTC down to its next key support at $81,100. Such a move would likely usher in a bearish trend for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market heading into 2025.

Conclusion

While Bitcoin has demonstrated remarkable growth throughout 2024, the idea of it hitting $250,000 before the year ends is far-fetched. A more plausible scenario involves BTC attempting to reclaim the $100K mark and, in the best-case scenario, pushing towards $120K or $150K. However, traders should also prepare for potential downside risks if support levels fail to hold.

Bitcoin remains a highly volatile asset, and while short-term targets may be ambitious, long-term potential continues to drive investor interest. As always, exercise caution and consider market conditions when making investment decisions.

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