What Bitcoin price trajectory looks like post-halving, according to bettors

Crypto News– The likelihood of Bitcoin reaching fresh all-time highs in April is diminishing rapidly.

What Bitcoin price trajectory looks like post-halving, according to bettors

According to punters on the blockchain-based betting platform Polymarket, the chances of Bitcoin surpassing $73,700 by the end of the month now stand at just 14%.

This represents a decrease of over 66% since April 8, when optimism fueled by demand for spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and the upcoming halving was at its peak.

A change in sentiment has gripped the cryptocurrency and other markets.

Caroline Bowler, CEO of the crypto exchange BTC Markets, noted a shift in investor sentiment last week. She highlighted gains in the US dollar, indicating a cautious approach. The dollar tends to be a safe haven during periods of risk aversion.

The Importance of the Halving Event

The halving is a predetermined event that will cut miner rewards for upholding the Bitcoin blockchain in half.

For many miners, this translates to a reduction in revenue while their operating expenses remain unchanged — a situation that could make them attractive acquisition targets for larger players.

One narrative suggests that the halving will propel Bitcoin to a new all-time high, a viewpoint supported by historical data and the surging demand for the cryptocurrency following the introduction of 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs in January.

However, some bettors and market observers are beginning to question this narrative.

Although the significance of the Bitcoin halving is overstated by certain market observers, recent Bitcoin rallies are seen as more than just a passing trend, according to Greg Beard, CEO of Stronghold Digital Mining. Bitcoin is evolving with institutional adoption.

Factors Suppressing Bitcoin’s Performance

Worries regarding the Federal Reserve’s potential delay in raising interest rates until the end of the year, coupled with the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, are exerting significant downward pressure on risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Bitcoin experienced a drop to a seven-week low after Iran’s weekend attack on Israel, with the asset falling from $67,200 to $62,700 shortly after Iran’s aerial assault.

According to a separate bet on Polymarket, there is a 68% probability that Bitcoin will trade above $60,000 by the end of the month.