Bitcoin Price in Limbo: Will US Jobs Data Push BTC to $95K or $100K?
Bitcoin Price – Bitcoin (BTC) continues to struggle as concerns over upcoming US employment data weigh on market sentiment. On February 7, Bitcoin’s price hovered around $97,000, a significant drop of 3.5% from the previous day. The drop comes amid growing concerns that the upcoming US jobs report could introduce further volatility for risk assets, including Bitcoin.
US Jobs Data: A Potential Headwind for Bitcoin
Bitcoin’s inability to celebrate slight increases in risk assets is largely tied to the higher-than-expected jobless claims in the US. While such data would typically be seen as positive for risk assets, Bitcoin seems to be facing a challenging environment. A notable fear is the possibility of a “huge beat” in the upcoming jobs report, which could fuel market uncertainty and lead to further downward pressure on Bitcoin.
The Kobeissi Letter, a trading resource, raised the question on February 6: “Are we set for a huge jobs report beat tomorrow?” The upcoming data is crucial, with predictions suggesting that US job growth could exceed expectations. According to prediction market service Kalshi, there’s a 28% chance that over 300,000 jobs were added in January, significantly higher than the 169,000 median estimate from Wall Street. If the report shows job growth exceeding 300,000, it would mark a strong start to the labor market in 2025.
The Implications for Bitcoin and Financial Policy
A stronger-than-expected jobs report would have broader financial implications, particularly for US Federal Reserve policy. Higher employment numbers would likely keep the Fed’s interest rates elevated, putting additional pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin. The markets are already bracing for this possibility, as reflected by the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, which shows a lack of conviction in further policy easing during Q1 2025.
Even a minor interest rate cut of 0.25% at the Fed’s next meeting in March is currently expected with only a 14.5% probability, reflecting market skepticism about further easing.
Traders Expect a Price Range Between $95K and $100K
As the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s price continues, traders are bracing for more volatility. Mark Cullen, a trader, shared his analysis with X followers, suggesting that both sides of the market could be tested before the real price movement occurs. He speculates that liquidity may drive Bitcoin’s price down to $95,000 before pushing upward to significant price levels.
Skew, another trader, echoed similar thoughts, suggesting that a strong external catalyst, likely from macroeconomic events, is needed to spark a more decisive Bitcoin price trend. The market is currently pricing in a range between $95,000 and $100,000, with a wait-and-see approach in play until more clarity emerges.
In conclusion, Bitcoin remains in a volatile state, with the upcoming US jobs report likely to be a major factor influencing its direction in the short term. Traders and investors alike are closely watching these developments, with expectations that the Fed’s policy decisions will continue to play a key role in Bitcoin’s price action. As always, keeping an eye on market indicators and predictions will be crucial for navigating these uncertain times.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies and stocks, particularly in micro-cap companies, are subject to significant volatility and risk. Please conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
Leave a comment