Bitcoin Options Expiry: Bulls Eyeing $100K as Market Gears Up
Bitcoin Options– Bitcoin is gearing up for its largest monthly options expiry of 2024, with a total exposure of $13.6 billion. This critical event, set to occur on November 29, will be a pivotal moment for the cryptocurrency market, providing bulls with an opportunity to push Bitcoin’s price beyond the $100,000 threshold. To understand the potential outcomes, it is essential to assess the impact of both call (buy) and put (sell) options set to expire.
Bitcoin Options Expiry and Market Sentiment
The broader financial landscape, including the S&P 500, has faced challenges in maintaining levels above 6,000, indicating growing caution among investors. This shift in market sentiment is reflected in the U.S. five-year Treasury yield, which has recently dropped from 4.35% on November 15 to 4.12% currently. In this environment of macroeconomic uncertainty, investors have increasingly turned to safer government bonds, even with lower returns, as concerns over an economic slowdown persist.
Despite these concerns, Bitcoin has shown resilience, with a 5% rebound from its recent low of $90,775 on November 26, driven by strong investor confidence. Over the last 30 days, Bitcoin has posted an impressive 34% gain, indicating that market optimism for the cryptocurrency remains high.
The Impact of U.S. Inflation and Potential Tariffs
In a note dated November 27, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics indicated that U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation could rise above 3% if President-elect Donald Trump were to implement import tariffs. According to Yahoo Finance, Barclays analysts also noted that “temporary and uncertain tariffs of this nature create natural incentives to delay investments.”
Bitcoin’s Options Market: Call Options Dominate
Looking at the Bitcoin options market for the Nov. 29 expiry, there is a noticeable disparity between call and put options. Call (buy) options on major exchanges like Deribit, CME, OKX, Binance, and Bybit have a total notional value of $7.4 billion, which exceeds the $6.2 billion in open interest for put (sell) options by 19%. This reflects a generally bullish sentiment among crypto traders, though it is important to note that this is a simplified view, and more advanced strategies may be in play.
Bitcoin Call (Buy) Options: The Favorable Scenario for Bulls
A closer look at the current price trends for Bitcoin suggests that call options are overwhelmingly favored by market participants. Here are the most likely scenarios for the Deribit exchange based on Bitcoin’s price range at 8:00 am UTC on Nov. 29:
- Between $86,000 and $90,000: Call options prevail by $1.65 billion.
- Between $90,000 and $94,000: Call options dominate by $2.6 billion.
- Between $94,000 and $98,000: Call options lead by $3.55 billion.
- Between $98,000 and $102,000: Call options outpace puts by $4.58 billion.
Bitcoin Bears Face Pressure as $100,000 Approaches
As the November options expiry approaches, bears face substantial pressure to push Bitcoin’s price below $90,000 to prevent call options from prevailing. The recent price action, coupled with increasing demand and a favorable options market, suggests that Bitcoin may be well-positioned to reach the $100,000 mark soon after the expiry of these options.
The Outlook for Bitcoin Post-Options Expiry
Bitcoin’s recent resilience amid inflation concerns and growing investor interest signals that the cryptocurrency could see its price continue to rise even after the November options expiry. As options traders closely monitor the $90,000 support level, the focus will shift toward the possibility of Bitcoin breaking the $100,000 barrier in the near future.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies and stocks, particularly in micro-cap companies, are subject to significant volatility and risk. Please conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
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