Bitcoin News (April 10, 2025) – US Markets React to Trump’s Tariff Pause: Bitcoin Hits $83,000
Bitcoin News (April 10, 2025) – US financial markets and the cryptocurrency sector experienced a significant shift following an announcement from US President Donald Trump, who declared a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, excluding China. This announcement sparked a rapid 5% surge in Bitcoin (BTC), propelling its price back to $83,000—a level last seen on April 6. The move also led to an 8% gain in the S&P 500, but Bitcoin’s derivative metrics remain cautious, with traders closely monitoring changes in US long-term government bond yields.
Bitcoin’s Price Movement and Trader Sentiment
The announcement of a tariff pause was met with an initial wave of optimism in the crypto space, as Bitcoin futures briefly crossed the neutral 5% premium mark, but it struggled to maintain upward momentum. The BTC futures premium rose above 5% temporarily but soon fell back below, indicating that while some investors are bullish, others remain skeptical. The uncertainty over whether the US Federal Reserve will lower interest rates through the year is contributing to cautious sentiment.
As of April 9, Bitcoin was trading around $81,826, with volatility from the US 10-year Treasury yield contributing to mixed feelings among traders. The yield, a key indicator of the government’s borrowing costs, has shown signs of weakening, which some analysts believe is a signal of reduced confidence in the US government’s ability to manage its debt. This has fueled speculation that foreign investors may be decreasing their holdings of US Treasuries, which could have a ripple effect on the broader market, including Bitcoin.
Federal Reserve’s Role and Market Uncertainty
One of the key factors affecting market sentiment is the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting minutes from March 18-19, which were released on April 9. The minutes highlighted concerns over stagflation—a combination of stagnant economic growth and rising inflation—which has led to increased speculation about the Fed’s interest rate decisions. According to the CME FEDWatch Tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates below 4% by September 17 dropped significantly, from 97.6% on April 8 to 69.7% the following day.
This shift in expectations regarding US monetary policy has been mirrored in the options market, where there has been notable volatility. Traders are expressing concerns over the US 10-year Treasury yield’s weakness, a situation that is contributing to broader market uncertainty, including Bitcoin’s performance.
Bitcoin Derivatives Signal Mixed Sentiment
In the world of Bitcoin derivatives, sentiment remains mixed. When traders anticipate a market correction, put options (sell options) tend to trade at a premium, pushing the 25% delta skew metric (put-call) above 6%. In contrast, during bullish periods, this indicator typically falls below -6%. On April 9, the delta skew for Bitcoin options hit a peak of 12% following China’s tariff retaliation announcement. However, this shift was reversed after Trump’s announcement of the tariff pause, causing the delta skew to return to a neutral 3%.
This reversal suggests that options markets are now pricing in equal probabilities for both upward and downward price movements, signaling the end of a bearish phase that began on March 29. This shift is important as it marks a shift from negative sentiment to more balanced market expectations.
Futures Markets and Retail Participation
One area that traders are paying close attention to is the futures market, particularly the perpetual futures contracts. These contracts closely track the spot price of Bitcoin and rely on an 8-hour funding fee. Typically, in neutral markets, the funding rate for Bitcoin futures hovers between 0.4% and 1.4% over a 30-day period. On April 9, the 30-day Bitcoin futures funding rate rose to 0.9%, its highest level in over six weeks. This indicates that retail traders are beginning to enter the market, but it remains within the neutral range, further suggesting that the tariff pause alone has not been enough to fully restore confidence in the Bitcoin market.
The Road Ahead for Bitcoin and Macroeconomic Uncertainty
As the Bitcoin options market signals a lack of clear bullish conviction, many traders are left wondering what will ultimately drive Bitcoin’s price higher. One of the key drivers will likely be reduced macroeconomic uncertainty. Specifically, a decline in the US 10-year Treasury yield, which reflects a reduction in market concerns about the US government’s fiscal health, could trigger a more sustained bullish momentum in Bitcoin.
The global economic environment continues to play a crucial role in Bitcoin’s price action. With tensions between the US and China over tariffs, and concerns about inflation and stagnation in the US economy, Bitcoin’s movement in the coming weeks will be closely tied to broader economic developments, including Federal Reserve actions.
In conclusion, while Bitcoin has shown positive price movements in the short term, the market remains highly sensitive to macroeconomic factors. The shift in investor sentiment, as well as volatility in US bond yields and the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions, will likely continue to shape the future direction of Bitcoin’s price.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin surged by 5% to $83,000 after Trump’s tariff pause announcement.
- Bitcoin futures and options markets show mixed sentiment, signaling cautious optimism.
- US economic uncertainty, particularly with Treasury yields and inflation concerns, continues to impact Bitcoin traders.
- Retail participation in Bitcoin futures has increased, but the market remains in a neutral phase.
As the US market shifts its focus to potential interest rate changes and economic uncertainties, Bitcoin’s future price movements will depend on how these macro factors evolve. The situation remains fluid, and traders will continue to monitor developments closely.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies and stocks, particularly in micro-cap companies, are subject to significant volatility and risk. Please conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
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