Bitcoin Faces Renewed Downward Pressure as HODLer Confidence Wavers and ETF Outflows Surge
Bitcoin (BTC) holders experienced a turbulent start to the week as the price plunged from $61,000 to $54,000 within just a few hours last Monday. This sharp decline, one of the most significant setbacks for BTC this year, resulted in substantial losses and widespread liquidations.
Although Bitcoin has since managed to recover its previous peak, data indicates that the cryptocurrency could still be at risk of further decline.
Hesitant Behavior Among Bitcoin HODLers
A key metric contributing to concerns about Bitcoin’s price is the Holder Net Position Change. This metric tracks whether long-term holders are accumulating more BTC or reducing their exposure to the cryptocurrency.
When the Holder Net Position Change increases, it signals that holders are buying more Bitcoin, suggesting potential price growth. Conversely, a decrease implies that these long-term holders are selling off their coins, which could exert downward pressure on the price.
According to data from Glassnode, long-term holders have been selling some of their BTC since August 5. Despite a recent rally driven by the spot market, this group offloaded 4,881 BTC on Saturday, August 10.
Another indicator pointing to potential price weakness is the netflow of spot ETFs. During last Wednesday and Thursday’s trading sessions, 12 Bitcoin ETFs collectively recorded inflows.
However, on Friday, data from SoSoValue revealed that these financial products experienced a net outflow of $89.73 million, indicating that more capital was withdrawn than invested. A surge in ETF inflows had previously been crucial to Bitcoin reaching its all-time high of $73,750 in March.
The outflows observed in the second quarter also highlighted the significant role institutional capital played in driving BTC’s price upward.
During that period, millions of dollars exited ETFs, contributing to a notable drop in Bitcoin’s price. If the outflows continue as the new week begins, BTC may struggle to maintain the $60,000 level.
Meanwhile, analyst Michaël van de Poppe shared his perspective on Bitcoin’s price movements.
“It’s still early in the month, but if BTC closes the monthly candle around $60K, it could indicate consolidation before a major bull breakout,” he remarked.
BTC Price Forecast: $61,000 Remains a Vulnerable Level
BTC is currently trading at $61,122. However, the daily chart shows that the cryptocurrency is nearing a supply zone between $61,616 and $62,477. Should Bitcoin reach this area, it may face resistance, potentially leading to a dip below $60,000.
Moreover, the Awesome Oscillator (AO) remains negative despite some bullish signals. The AO, which compares short- and long-term price movements to gauge momentum, suggests bearish momentum when in negative territory. At present, the indicator’s negative reading implies that bearish momentum persists, and a price drop could be imminent. While Bitcoin may not experience a significant double-digit correction, the price could decline to $60,499 in the near term.
However, an increase in ETF inflows coupled with renewed accumulation by long-term holders could invalidate this bearish outlook. If these factors materialize, BTC’sprice could rebound toward $63,205 or even $67,058.
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