Bitcoin ETF Approval Draws High-Stakes Bets from Crypto Enthusiasts

Crypto analysts are growing increasingly confident in the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) this week, spurred by ongoing communications between the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and optimistic ETF operators. Crypto enthusiasts are backing their convictions with substantial bets, funneling over $6.7 million into Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-friendly prediction market, wagering on the likelihood of a spot Bitcoin ETF receiving approval by January 15.

Bitcoin ETF Approval Draws High-Stakes Bets from Crypto Enthusiasts

As of now, Polymarket users collectively estimate an 85% chance of the SEC approving any spot Bitcoin ETF by the specified date. This prediction pool currently stands as the largest on Polymarket, surpassing even bets on the 2024 Republican presidential nominee, which has accumulated approximately $5.9 million in wagers. Despite a decade-long effort by companies to secure approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States, the SEC has consistently opposed such vehicles, citing concerns about potential scams and market manipulation. The introduction of an ETF would offer investors exposure to Bitcoin without the need to own and manage the actual cryptocurrency.

Given Bitcoin’s remarkable 168% surge over the past year, reaching a current value exceeding $46,000, investors may find the prospect appealing. Although Bitcoin has retreated from its late 2021 peak above $69,000, it has substantially recovered from the extended bear market that followed FTX’s collapse in 2022 when the cryptocurrency hit a low near $15,000.

Crypto Enthusiasts Wager Millions on the Approval of a Bitcoin ETF

Confusion ensued among crypto traders on Tuesday when the SEC’s official Twitter account seemingly announced the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, SEC Chair Gary Gensler promptly clarified via Twitter that the agency’s account had been “compromised,” emphasizing that no such approval had been granted at that time.

Despite the initial false alarm, analysts maintain their optimism, believing that approval is still likely to come this week. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expressed his anticipation on Tuesday, tweeting that he expects an approval announcement on Wednesday afternoon, just before the commencement of trading on Thursday.