Bitcoin Aggregate Cost Basis Hits Record $40,980, Strengthening Market Support

Bitcoin Aggregate Cost Basis Hits Record $40,980, Strengthening Market Support

Bitcoin’s aggregate cost basis (a crucial metric that reflects the total original value of all Bitcoin holdings) soared to an all-time high of $40,980 per BTC by the end of 2024, according to ARK Invest’s Big Ideas 2025 report.

Over the past year, this key indicator surged 86%, reaching a total valuation of $811.7 billion. Some investors consider the aggregate cost basis a long-term fair value benchmark for Bitcoin, potentially serving as a major support level in the next bear market.

Bitcoin’s Floor Price Surpasses $40,000, Approaching $44,000

Several industry analysts, including Blockstream co-founder Adam Back, argue that Bitcoin’s floor price has already exceeded the $40,000 mark, reinforcing a significant support level.

Among the most closely watched indicators, Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average—a technical metric used to gauge long-term market trends—rose to $43,983 on February 11, as Bitcoin traded above $95,740, according to CoinGlass data.

Back highlighted that this critical indicator broke the $40,000 threshold on October 18, 2024, stating:

“The Bitcoin 200-week moving average, effectively the Bitcoin floor ‘up only’ price, crossed $40K. Historically, it represents Bitcoin’s floor price, smoothing out volatility.”

Macroeconomic Factors Could Impact Bitcoin’s Short-Term Price Action

In the short term, Bitcoin’s price remains sensitive to key macroeconomic data, particularly the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January, set for release on February 12.

According to Iliya Kalchev, dispatch analyst at Nexo, higher-than-expected inflation figures could shift investor sentiment toward potential interest rate hikes, affecting Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. Kalchev noted:

“A higher-than-expected CPI reading may refocus investor attention on rate hikes, impacting BTC’s price movement. Additionally, Japan’s January PPI, Germany’s inflation data, and UK economic indicators will provide further market direction.”

Bitcoin Holds Strong Above $95,000 Despite Volatility

Despite recent market turbulence, Bitcoin remained resilient above $95,000 on February 9, even after experiencing one of the largest intraday sell-offs since 2022—a period marked by the collapse of Three Arrows Capital (3AC).

The recent sell-off was largely driven by escalating global trade tensions between the U.S., China, and other major economies, sparking investor uncertainty.

With both bullish momentum and volatility in play, the coming weeks will be crucial in determining Bitcoin’s next major price move.