Bullish Q4 for Bitcoin: Analysts Highlight U.S. Job Stats and FTX Developments
According to analysts at K33, despite the dip that occurred last week due to increased Middle East tensions, better-than-expected U.S. jobs statistics, a rebound over the weekend, and encouraging developments in the FTX estate creditor payback process, maintain a bullish Q4 for bitcoin.
Judge John Dorsey of the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the District of Delaware accepted FTX’s restructuring plan during a hearing on Monday, bringing creditor payouts one step closer to happening nearly two years after the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange. Vetle Lunde and David Zimmerman, analysts for K33, predicted in a report released on Tuesday that compensation will start late this quarter and extend into early Q1, 2025, within a 60-day window surrounding the court’s effective date.
Debtors will have 60 days to repay individual customers with claims under $50,000, representing approximately $1.2 billion worth of assets. Larger creditors (entitlement class) are expected to receive their $9 billion payouts in February 2025,
TrendingLunde and Zimmerman
Will FTX Repayments Revitalize the Crypto Market? Experts Weigh In
For bulls, the question is how much of the repayments will likely find their way back into the market, given that the estate’s sell-side pressure has subsided and the crypto assets have already been converted into fiat. The experts predicted that $3.9 billion had been purchased by credit funds and was unlikely to be relisted on the market out of the $14.4 billion to $16.3 billion in claims. Furthermore, they calculated that insiders, those without KYC verification, and a subset of sanctioned countries held almost 33% of the remaining claims, rendering them ineligible for submission.
K33 Analysis: Bitcoin Dominates as Ether’s Market Share Declines
According to The Block’s Bitcoin Price Page, the leading cryptocurrency is presently trading at $62,354 after plunging from its all-time high of about $74,000 in March. Year-to-date, it has increased 40%, and this year, its market share has increased from 52.5% to 58%. According to Lunde and Zimmerman, Ether’s dominance has decreased from 16.7% to 13.8%, with the ratio at multi-year lows around 0.039, suggesting that traders are still wary of market beta.
According to K33, just 21 out of the top 100 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have outpaced bitcoin in 2024. Out of the top 100 cryptocurrencies, about 48 have had negative returns this year.
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