Trump vs Harris: How the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Could Impact the Crypto Market
Trump vs Harris: As the U.S. presidential election approaches, the crypto industry is closely monitoring the differing positions of candidates Donald Trump and Kamala Harris on cryptocurrency. Industry experts have largely agreed that the election outcome may not significantly sway the overall market trend, although a Trump presidency is generally perceived as more favorable for the crypto landscape.
The Candidates’ Crypto Positions
In the lead-up to the November 5 election, Trump has shifted from a previous critical stance on Bitcoin to becoming a pro-crypto candidate. He has begun accepting cryptocurrencies for campaign donations and has proposed several policies, including transforming the U.S. into a Bitcoin mining powerhouse. Trump also aims to appoint a crypto-friendly SEC chair and establish a national strategic Bitcoin reserve.
Conversely, Kamala Harris has only recently started addressing cryptocurrency in her speeches. During a Wall Street fundraiser in September, she expressed her support for encouraging crypto businesses while prioritizing consumer protection. In a subsequent address to The Economic Club of Pittsburgh, Harris emphasized the need for the U.S. to become dominant in blockchain technology, framing digital assets as a crucial part of her economic vision.
Bipartisan Support and Industry Reactions
The potential for bipartisan support for crypto has garnered optimism from some industry players. Hayden Adams, founder of Uniswap, praised Harris’s progressive approach, contrasting it with Joe Biden’s more skeptical stance. However, others, including Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani, urged for clearer policy statements from Harris, arguing that industry sentiment would likely be stronger under a Trump administration.
Expert Insights on Election Impact
With the election just weeks away, The Block consulted various experts for their insights on what a Trump or Harris victory could mean for the crypto sector.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, articulated a growing belief that the crypto industry will thrive regardless of the election outcome. He noted that Washington’s previously “hostile attitude” towards crypto appears to be diminishing, as evidenced by more favorable congressional comments and relaxed custody restrictions from banks.
Eliézer Ndinga, Head of Digital Assets Strategy at 21Shares, echoed this sentiment, pointing out that the crypto space has consistently expanded into a $2 trillion asset class with over 500 million users across various political administrations.
Uncertainty Surrounding a Harris Administration
Despite optimism, Hougan acknowledged that the election still matters, especially concerning uncertainty about a potential Harris administration. Investors may hesitate until they observe any changes in leadership at key regulatory agencies. Such uncertainty could suppress crypto market performance until clarity is achieved.
Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, highlighted that the U.S. may experience debt rating downgrades regardless of the election outcome. He believes Bitcoin would stand to benefit under such circumstances, although the fate of altcoins would depend significantly on the winner.
The Regulatory Landscape
James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, argued that a Trump second term could result in a regulatory environment more favorable to cryptocurrencies, bolstered by pro-crypto advisers. In contrast, Harris’s balanced approach may not provide the same regulatory clarity, possibly creating challenges for altcoins.
Financial analyst Lyn Alden pointed out that while Republicans have generally shown more enthusiasm for crypto, a significant number of Democrats also support Bitcoin and other digital assets. She stressed that the election would likely impact crypto securities laws, especially under the purview of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Market Sentiment and Future Projections
Samir Kerbage, CIO at Hashdex, remarked that this election would be notable as the first influenced by crypto voters, impacting the future of the crypto asset class. He anticipates that a transition to a new administration could be a net positive for investors, primarily by alleviating market uncertainty.
Zach Bradford, CEO of CleanSpark, shared a similar sentiment, indicating that while the election outcome would affect market prices, the primary impact would stem from the removal of uncertainty surrounding the election.
Kyle Schneps, VP of Public Policy at Foundry Digital, noted that crypto would likely thrive under either candidate, although Trump’s pro-crypto stance could catalyze industry growth. He emphasized that voters who prioritize crypto are eagerly awaiting a substantive shift in Harris’s position on regulatory policies.
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