October Crypto Trends- Uptober or Selltober? Navigating October’s Crypto Market
October Crypto Trends– Bullish sentiment in the crypto market, often referred to as Uptober, has started to diminish as prices continue to retreat. On October 4, on-chain analytics provider Santiment reported a notable decline in mentions of Uptober since the start of the month, indicating a shift in trader attitudes.
Declining Optimism: The Rise of “Selltober” and “Octobear”
Traders are increasingly skeptical about the potential for October to be an automatic money printer for crypto. Instead, social media has been flooded with memes and discussions about Selltober and Octobear. Despite the prevailing negativity, Santiment’s founder Maksim Balashevich suggests that this lack of optimism may open the door for a short-term bounce, stating, Uptober excitement wanes as the market dips, which does open the door for a rebound. Whether the bigger downtrend is over remains to be seen.
Veteran trader Ash Crypto shared with his 1.1 million followers on X that BTC could drop a little more so that people will stop believing in Uptober, before predicting that once bears start getting excited and calling for $40k to $45k, BTC will pump hard.
Market Dynamics: Selling Pressure and Strong Inflows
In a note to investors on October 4, analysts from 10x Research pointed out that many crypto bulls have been caught off guard since March, expecting the bullish trend to continue. They noted that technical indicators suggest the rally was overextended. The analysts mentioned, It now seems that sell-offs from early adopters (OGs) and large token unlocks have been driving prices down despite strong inflows from stablecoins, Bitcoin Spot ETFs, and increased futures leverage.
As of October 3, the crypto market had experienced a decline of approximately $200 billion, or around 8%, since the start of the month. Total market capitalization fell 1.9%, reaching mid-September levels at $2.2 trillion, according to CoinGecko.
Historical Context: October’s Bullish Trends
Historically, October has been a bullish month for Bitcoin, with positive price movements observed in nine out of the past eleven years. This month has earned a reputation for generating gains, with the last five consecutive Octobers witnessing increases ranging from 5.5% to 40%, even during bear market years. Market trends suggest that significant gains typically occur around the middle of the month.
In early October 2023, BTC experienced a 7% decline, hitting $28,500 on October 2, before dropping to $26,650 by October 13. However, it then rebounded almost 30%, closing the month at $34,500. The cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s performance in October may suggest that investors should remain vigilant for potential recovery as the month progresses.
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