Google and Apple: How Big Tech is Leveraging AI to Stay Ahead: Insights from ARK Invest
Google and Apple: Big Tech companies such as Apple and Alphabet, Google’s parent company, are likely to harness artificial intelligence (AI) as a strategic tool to retain their market dominance, according to insights from Cathie Wood’s investment firm, ARK Invest.
ARK Invest’s Insights on Disruptive AI Technologies
On October 1, ARK Invest released a comprehensive white paper examining the disruptive potential of AI. The report, authored by ARK’s chief futurist, Brett Winton, outlines a framework for identifying disruptive technologies. It emphasizes how leading tech firms may enhance their AI capabilities while highlighting the inherent risks of failing to do so effectively.
The Cost Decline of AI Technology
Winton identified three critical characteristics of disruptive technology platforms: steep cost declines, market penetration in new or underserved areas, and business models that delay monetization, often appearing financially unattractive. He stated that AI represents a quintessential disruptive technology, showcasing the “steepest cost decline curve of any technology in history.”
He elaborated:
“The cost to operate artificial intelligence models of equivalent performance has been halving every four months — a trend that we expect to persist throughout this decade.”
Winton likened the cost trajectory of AI to Moore’s Law, which observes that semiconductor costs decrease by half approximately every 18 to 24 months. According to him, the data indicates that the AI revolution is advancing at a rate four to six times faster than the semiconductor industry.
Big Tech’s Cautious Approach to AI Adoption
Winton noted that established tech giants typically allow startups to mitigate the risks associated with new technologies before scaling their own implementations. He remarked:
“Google and Apple have taken that approach to AI.”
For example, Google did not launch a large language model until over three years after OpenAI had entered the market. Even then, Winton observed that Google’s performance lagged:
“Since early 2023, using the most advanced Google model instead of the most performant OpenAI model would have cost customers 40%+ more in per-unit performance.”
Delayed AI Features: Strategic Decisions by Google and Apple
While Google has fallen behind OpenAI, Apple has yet to introduce a large language model. According to Winton, Apple is expected to release its first modern AI-driven products in late 2024. He emphasized that a slow rollout does not necessarily mean that these competitors will lose the race.
“Companies like Google and Apple have good reasons for delaying the introduction of AI features,” he said, noting that releasing a product that behaves unpredictably can be detrimental to a carefully cultivated reputation.
The Future of AI in Big Tech
Despite their caution, Winton expressed skepticism about whether this approach will enable Big Tech firms to deploy AI systems that achieve widespread efficacy. He concluded:
“They are incumbents. They would prefer technology that is not so disruptive. To their detriment, it is.”
The Implications of AI for Big Tech
As AI continues to evolve rapidly, Big Tech companies face significant challenges in balancing innovation with the risks associated with new technologies. ARK Invest’s insights underscore the critical role AI will play in shaping the future of these industry giants, emphasizing that those who fail to adapt quickly may find themselves at a disadvantage in the competitive landscape.
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