Bitcoin Price Faces Setback Amid Options Expiry and Market Volatility
This week, Bitcoin encountered strong resistance at the $61,300 level, leading to a sharp decline to $57,000 on Thursday, just ahead of the Friday Bitcoin options expiry. The put-call ratio for Bitcoin and Ethereum options indicates a closely contested battle between bullish and bearish market participants.
Bitcoin Options Expiry and Potential Market Stabilization
On Friday, August 16, approximately 24,000 Bitcoin options will expire, with a put-call ratio of 0.83, representing a notional value of $1.4 billion and a max pain point at $59,500. This ratio, nearing 1, underscores the intense competition between bulls and bears. Currently, Bitcoin is trading 5% lower at $58,077, with technical indicators suggesting a possible decline to $54,000.
The impending options expiry accounts for just 10% of the total open positions in the market, while options set to expire in August, September, and December each represent just over 20%. This balanced distribution indicates strong market resilience, with options data suggesting that cryptocurrency market volatility may ease in the future, potentially signaling a shift toward a more stable phase.
In addition to Bitcoin, 184,000 Ethereum options are also set to expire today, with a put-call ratio of 0.80, a notional value of $470 million, and a max pain point of $2,650. Ethereum is also experiencing selling pressure, currently down 3.47% and trading at $2,587.96, giving it a market cap of $311 billion.
Macro Factors Hinder Bitcoin’s Upside Potential
Despite the recent cooling in CPI inflation data, Bitcoin bulls have struggled to regain momentum amid ongoing market volatility, facing significant resistance at the $61,300 level. Analysts at 10x Research attribute the stalled rally toward $66,000 to macroeconomic headwinds, which have left traders perplexed by the disconnect between the robust performance of U.S. tech stocks and the relative underperformance of the crypto market.
According to the 10x Research report, Bitcoin could potentially retreat into a trading range between $50,000 and $60,000. On the upside, Bitcoin is encountering stiff resistance in the $60,000-$61,000 range. This potential slowdown might allow oversold technical indicators to reset, increasing the likelihood of Bitcoin retesting its August 5 low near $50,000—a move that could catch many investors off guard.
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