Crypto Executives Assess Likelihood of Ethereum ETF Approval, Eyes on May Deadline

Crypto Executives Assess Likelihood of Ethereum ETF Approval, Eyes on May Deadline

Crypto News – Galaxy’s Steve Kurz also projected a 75% likelihood of approval by the conclusion of 2024.

During a panel discussion on February 13th, executives from three asset management firms reached a consensus that pending spot Ethereum ETFs have a 50% chance of gaining approval this May.

Matt Hougan, Bitwise Asset Management’s Global Head of Research, expressed confidence, stating, “I believe it’s likely we’ll see an ETH ETF fairly soon. I assess the chances as 50/50 by May…”

Steve Kurz, Galaxy Asset Management’s Global Head, echoed this sentiment, indicating a 50% likelihood of approval for a spot Ethereum ETF by May, while also forecasting a 75% probability by the end of 2024.

Dave LaValle, Grayscale’s Global Head of ETFs, concurred, placing the odds of approval at 50% by May. Regarding potential legal action in the event of a rejection, LaValle remarked, “We’ll have to wait and see how it unfolds. We need to assess the situation based on facts.”

Grayscale’s previous legal action with the SEC regarding its spot Bitcoin ETF application was cited as a contributing factor in the SEC’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January.

The 50% probabilities voiced by each executive align broadly with other forecasts. JP Morgan‘s Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou believes there’s a 50% chance for a spot Ethereum ETF to be approved in May. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart, a colleague of Eric Balchunas, who moderated the panel discussion, has projected a 60% chance of approval. Additionally, a Polymarket prediction market suggests a 48% likelihood of approval by the end of May.

Eight firms are set to offer an ETH ETF. Among the three mentioned firms, only Grayscale and Galaxy (in partnership with Invesco) have pending spot Ethereum ETF applications with regulators.

Other applicants for spot Ethereum ETFs include VanEck, ARK and 21Shares, Hashdex, BlackRock (iShares), Fidelity, and Franklin Templeton.

The SEC is slated to decide on VanEck’s application by May 23rd, with potential impacts on similar applications. While not guaranteed, this decision is expected to influence others.

Currently, no spot Ethereum ETF exists in the US market. Bitwise offers two Ethereum futures ETFs, which do not provide direct exposure to the spot Ethereum market. Grayscale offers an Ethereum Trust and an Ethereum Futures Trust, with intentions to convert them into ETFs. Numerous other asset managers also offer Ethereum futures ETFs.