Where Is Toncoin [TON] Headed This Cycle?

Toncoin lags behind the market despite Telegram integration—can rising adoption reverse its bearish trend?

19 August 2025, 11:48 published Updated 19 August 2025, 11:48

Where Is Toncoin [TON] Headed This Cycle?

Is Toncoin Falling Behind? Key On-Chain Signals to Watch This Cycle

Toncoin [TON] reached its all-time high of $8.25 in June 2024. Since then, however, its momentum has slowed, especially on higher timeframes. Even with a short-term bounce to $3.56 in late July, TON has struggled to follow the broader market trend.

While Bitcoin [BTC] and Ethereum [ETH] posted new highs, TON has lagged. That said, TON has one unique edge — its deep integration with Telegram. As the only blockchain embedded into a messaging platform used by over 900 million people, TON is positioned to benefit from mass adoption in a way Ethereum currently is not.

TON is already used for Telegram Premium subscriptions and creator payouts. If even a fraction of Telegram’s user base begins using TON, the demand for the token could rise significantly over time.

Network Growth vs Price Action

On-chain data from Santiment showed TON has around 37,000 holders—far below the project’s goal of onboarding millions from Telegram by 2028. Meanwhile, the mean coin age has remained flat since June, signaling a lack of strong accumulation.

The MVRV ratio is barely above zero, and the weekly chart paints a bearish picture. Price action has stayed below key resistance at $4.20, and the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) has remained negative—indicating capital is flowing out rather than in.

While TON’s fundamentals are promising, especially in terms of adoption potential, current technical and on-chain signals don’t support a bullish short-term view. For momentum to shift, TON needs to break above $4.20 and show sustained buying interest.