As Bitcoin continues its descent from the $90,000 handle, a chilling warning from one of the industry’s heaviest hitters has sent ripples of “Fear” through the market. With BTC retesting levels that many analysts thought were long gone, investors are once again left wondering: where is the true bottom?
Novogratz: “Bitcoin Shouldn’t Be Behaving This Way”
In a candid interview with Bloomberg Crypto, Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz didn’t mince words about the current state of the market. “Bitcoin wasn’t supposed to move like this. Something went wrong,” Novogratz stated. “I think we’re nearing a bottom, but we’ll see.”
The CEO’s admission highlights a rare moment of uncertainty among institutional giants, who seem caught off guard by the sheer intensity of the volatility. The crypto community remains split on the commentary; while some view the “bottom is near” call from a major player as a buy signal, others argue that this correction is simply the “Four-Year Cycle” playing out exactly as intended.
The Anatomy of the Slump
The report notes that Bitcoin has shed roughly 40% of its value since its October 2025 peak of $126,000, currently struggling to find a footing near the $76,000 mark. This drawdown is being driven by a perfect storm of factors:
- Cyclical Mean Reversion: Arriving roughly 22 months post-April 2024 halving, this phase historically aligns with early investors rotating capital and locking in gains.
- Geopolitical Jitters: Ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East has pushed capital away from “high-beta” risk assets like Bitcoin and into traditional safe havens like gold.
- The Fed Factor: A hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, coupled with the nomination of Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair, has significantly tightened global liquidity.
Structural Weakness and Liquidation Risks
On-chain metrics paint a sobering picture. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) continues to trend lower, signaling that a wave of “panic selling” is underway. Furthermore, the mass liquidation of long positions—traders who bet heavily on BTC holding above $80,000—has added significant fuel to the downward pressure.
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