Will Indian Markets Rally or Retreat? Nifty and Sensex in Focus

Sensex and Nifty 50 Technical Analysis – The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open lower on Wednesday, June 18, mirroring weak global market sentiments. Early trends in the Gift Nifty futures indicate a cautious start, trading around 24,834.50, down approximately 34.3 points from the previous close. This decline follows a subdued session on Tuesday, where domestic equities closed in the red.

Tuesday’s Market Close: Sensex and Nifty 50 End on a Bearish Note

On June 17, the Sensex dropped by 212.85 points (0.26%), closing at 81,583.30, while the Nifty 50 shed 93.10 points (0.37%) to settle at 24,853.40. This downward momentum reflects broader market uncertainty and investor caution amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and global economic data releases.

Nifty 50 Technical Outlook: Consolidation Amid Resistance Near 25,000

Technical analysts observe that the Nifty 50 formed a bearish candlestick after facing strong resistance in the 25,000 – 25,170 zone. According to Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst at SAMCO Securities:

Nifty 50 is currently holding above its 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 24,830, but has struggled to reclaim the 25,000 mark.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped to 53, indicating waning momentum.
The MACD remains in bearish territory with a negative histogram, signaling subdued buying strength.
Bollinger Bands are tightening and converging around the midline, suggesting an impending price contraction before a decisive breakout.

Immediate supports lie at 24,700 and 24,650, while a sustained close above 25,000-25,170 could reignite bullish sentiment.

Similarly, Nandish Shah, Senior Derivative & Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, emphasized that the Nifty 50 is in a consolidation phase but cautioned traders to watch the 24,700 support level closely.

Candlestick Patterns Indicate Potential Pause in Uptrend

VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, highlighted the formation of a Dark Cloud Cover candlestick on the daily chart. This pattern typically signals a possible pause or reversal in the recent upward movement. Ambala anticipates the Nifty 50 to find support between 24,730 and 24,650, facing resistance near 25,080 to 25,150 during Wednesday’s session.

Bank Nifty: Bearish Candle Forms Amid Geopolitical Concerns

The Bank Nifty closed 230.75 points lower (0.41%) at 55,714.15, forming a bearish candlestick that reflects profit booking near the 56,000 level. This follows escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which continue to weigh on market sentiment.

Bajaj Broking Research noted that a sustained close above 56,000 would be needed to trigger further upside momentum toward 56,600 and 57,000 levels. Failure to break this resistance might confine the Bank Nifty to a narrow range between 55,000 and 56,000, with stock-specific moves gaining importance.

On the downside, a decisive break below 55,000 could invalidate the current consolidation, opening the door for a retest of strong support between 54,500 and 54,000 — a key confluence zone combining the 50-day EMA and retracement levels from previous upward moves.

Bank Nifty Technical Indicators: Consolidation Amid Bearish Momentum

According to Om Mehra, the Bank Nifty is hovering near its 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the midline of the Bollinger Bands, suggesting a zone of congestion. The daily RSI has eased to 52, signaling a loss of momentum but no outright reversal yet. The MACD remains in a negative crossover phase, reinforcing the consolidation view.

Supports are identified at 55,350 and 55,000, while resistance levels stand near 56,100 and 56,200, coinciding with the upper Bollinger Band.

Until a decisive breakout above or below these critical levels occurs, the Bank Nifty may continue to trade sideways with a slight bearish bias.

Summary

In summary, the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty indices face short-term pressure as they battle key resistance and support zones amid global market uncertainty and geopolitical risks. Technical signals suggest consolidation phases for both indices, with market participants closely monitoring critical levels for potential breakout or breakdown scenarios.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies and stocks, particularly in micro-cap companies, are subject to significant volatility and risk. Please conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.