Hidden Bearish Divergence Signals Caution
PENGU has been one of the meme coins to watch in early December after a bullish bounce confirmed renewed buying activity. However, recent price action shows the first warning signs.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI), which measures momentum on a 0–100 scale, reached a higher high between November 10 and December 1, while PENGU’s price recorded a lower high. This hidden bearish divergence suggests that although buyers are active, the price is not rising with equal strength.
“That type of mismatch can slow rallies during broader downtrends,” analysts noted, highlighting that PENGU remains down nearly 25% over the past month.
Whale Activity Highlights Potential Weakness
On-chain data shows that large holders (whales) have trimmed their positions by 3.62%, now holding roughly 1.19 billion PENGU, valued at about 43 million PENGU. This reduction may indicate that whales are taking profits after the recent bounce.
The top 100 addresses—mega whales—have shifted heavily toward shorts, reducing long exposure by over 17% in 24 hours. Even though consistent PERP winners slightly increased long activity, the overall group remains net-short, reflecting bearish sentiment.
Together, the momentum divergence and shift in whale behavior underline why the current rally faces its first meaningful test.
PENGU is currently trading near $0.0121, with a resistance ceiling around $0.0129, where the latest rally stalled. A break above $0.0129, followed by $0.0138, would indicate renewed upward momentum. However, the hidden bearish divergence remains valid until PENGU surpasses $0.0166, the early November peak.
On the downside, the first support level is $0.0110. A daily close below this level could lead to a deeper move toward $0.0093, the previous reaction area prior to December’s rebound.
“RSI warns of slowing momentum, whales are reducing their stake, and PERP traders are positioning against the move,”analysts said. “For the early December rally to hold, prices need to stay above $0.0110 and push cleanly through $0.0138.”
