Barclays’s Cautious 2026 Outlook: Crypto Enters a Transition Phase
In 2026, Barclays is wary of cryptocurrencies. The bank’s year-end research report predicts decreased trade activity and few growth catalysts. Financial institution says digital asset exchanges face significant obstacles. In this regard, retail involvement and spot trading volumes are falling. The bank called 2026 an industry transformation. It stated this phase marks a transition from crypto markets’ turbulent boom-and-bust cycles. The research also says decreased spot trade volumes are pressuring retail platforms like Coinbase and Robinhood. These volumes are crucial to exchange revenue.
Spot crypto trading volumes appear to be trending towards a down-year in FY26, and it is not clear to us what might reverse this trend,
the analysts
Barclays: Few Market Catalysts Likely for Crypto Through 2026
Regulations, product releases, and political events have historically affected cryptocurrency markets. Barclays referenced earlier activity increases, including the March 2024 spot Bitcoin ETF acceptance. It also referred to the rally that ensued when the US presidential election later that year produced a result favorable to cryptocurrencies. However, few comparable catalysts are expected through 2026, according to the bank.
Crypto Enters a Structural Shift Phase in 2026
Barclays said that most of the optimism seemed priced into markets, despite the recent U.S. elections creating a more favorable political environment for digital assets. Senate approval would be necessary for legislative development, including the CLARITY Act. The report suggests that before it has any real-world effects, it may possibly encounter legal issues. In conclusion, the bank characterized 2026 as a year of transformation for the cryptocurrency industry. In the face of dwindling retail activity and few near-term growth drivers, businesses are anticipated to concentrate on long-term investments in infrastructure, tokenized finance, and compliance during this time.
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