Crypto Market Myth Busted: Is ‘Sell in May’ Outdated?

Crypto Market Myth Busted: Why Crypto Analysts Are Bucking the ‘Sell in May’ Trend?

Analysts at K33 say that this time is different and advocate for a “hold in May and stay” approach instead of the tried-and-tested “sell in May and walk away” technique that cryptocurrency has adopted from conventional markets. In more established markets, such as the S&P 500, where average performance is lower from May to October than from November to April, the old saying has some validity. Even over longer periods of time, it tends to be more volatile and yield fewer returns.

Crypto’s Seasonal Dilemma: Is ‘Sell in May’ Still Relevant?

Although this seasonal effect has gained popularity in the cryptocurrency space as well, trader and former NYSE Arca market maker Eric Crown pointed out last month that 50% of Bitcoin‘s far shorter 14-year observable trading history has seen a sharp fall since the beginning of May. Participants find a 50/50 toss-up to be of little use. However, four of those declines occurred in the last four years, which may account for their growing faith in the mantra.

There are few fully satisfying explanations as to why we have observed this seasonality of returns, but the vacation effect and tax deadlines may represent one key performance dampener. Further, summers generally tend to see fewer catalysts than the rest of the year.

K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde and Senior Analyst David Zimmerman

Could Trump’s Market Moves Make Bitcoin the Strongest Asset This Summer?

The K33 experts contend that, however, things are looking up to be different this time around because there will be a number of President Trump-driven triggers in the summer of 2025.

While Trump’s overall market impact is an annoyance, one has to accept the market for what it is. Right now, it is a broad Trump trade; his moves impact risk tolerance and skew forward expectations. Onwards, crypto is about to face multiple Trump-driven positive developments, whereas equities may face a tariff repeat — setting the stage for relative bitcoin strength in the months ahead.

K33 analysts

Trump’s Tariff Postponement: A Temporary Respite for Markets, But Chaos Looms Ahead

Between February and early April, Trump’s tariff pronouncements had a significant negative impact on both traditional and cryptocurrency markets. However, a 90-day tariff halt on the majority of countries provided some respite, which has persisted into May.

A tariff postponement means one thing — the topic will resurface with all its horrifying glory in the midst of the summer. The likelihood of markets re-experiencing the April chaos is thus relatively high, forcing market participants into risk-averse positioning.

K33 analysts

Bitcoin Holds Strong Against Market Declines

They countered that Bitcoin held up well throughout the April decline, with the S&P 500‘s worst days depreciating more than the leading cryptocurrency. This is an extremely uncommon occurrence when market turbulence cools correlations.

The aforementioned balance of a potential Strategic Bitcoin Reserve vs. the potential negative company-specific long-term implication of tariffs on earnings and employment points toward stronger fundamentals for bitcoin over equities,

K33 analysts

For more up-to-date crypto news, you can follow Crypto Data Space.