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BTC Price Breakout Imminent? Exchange Supply Shrinks as BTC Hits New Highs
BTC Price Nears $110K – Over the past six months, Bitcoin exchange reserves have declined significantly, falling by 400,000 BTC according to on-chain data from CryptoQuant. A chart shared by Crypto Rover on June 16 reveals reserves decreased from around 2.8 million BTC in late December 2024 to roughly 2.4 million BTC by mid-June 2025. During this period, BTC’s price rose sharply from below $70,000 to over $105,000, illustrating an inverse relationship between exchange supply and market price.
Reduced Exchange Supply Could Amplify Market Volatility
CryptoQuant’s data shows BTC availability on exchanges reached its lowest level in over a year, especially during May and June 2025. This supply contraction coincided with a surge in price, which accelerated past the $90,000 milestone. The timing suggests that large investors may be accumulating Bitcoin off-exchange, contributing to the shrinking supply and potentially setting the stage for increased price volatility as demand intensifies.
Analysts Confirm Shift to Private Wallets and Supply Crunch Risks
Industry experts like Sjuul Follings of Traders Union have confirmed this supply reduction, attributing it to decreased trading activity on exchanges. Similarly, CoinQuest highlighted that the sharp decline in exchange reserves could trigger a supply crunch if demand picks up further. Large holders appear to be accumulating Bitcoin during market hesitation, reducing the number of coins available for quick trades and potentially increasing market sensitivity to price swings.
Bitcoin’s Price Chart Shows Bullish Pennant Pattern, Targeting $127K
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s daily price chart has formed a classic bullish pennant pattern on TradingView. This pattern emerges when price consolidates within a narrowing range after a strong upward rally, signaling a possible continuation of the uptrend once resistance breaks. Currently trading at around $107,648, Bitcoin could see a breakout target near $127,342, representing an 18% increase from current levels.
The pennant features a symmetrical triangle of higher lows and lower highs, following a sharp rise that began in late April and peaked in early May. Positioned above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $103,000, Bitcoin’s price holding this level supports bullish momentum. However, a convincing breakout requires strong volume and momentum to surpass resistance near $110,000.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies and stocks, particularly in micro-cap companies, are subject to significant volatility and risk. Please conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
