Bitcoin RSI Pattern Casts Doubt on Four-Year Halving Cycle
According to Julien Bittel, head of macro analysis at Global Macro Investor, Bitcoin’s typical price behavior has almost always recovered after the RSI falls below 30. He included a graph that displays the typical market trajectory for the previous five instances in which Bitcoin’s RSI fell below 30. The researcher also disagreed with the widely held notion that Bitcoin’s halving events correspond to a four-year cycle.
Bitcoin RSI Nears Oversold Levels on Weekly Chart
On a scale of 0 to 100, the RSI momentum indicator indicates whether an asset is overbought or oversold. An asset is oversold, possibly undervalued, and may be due for a rebound if its RSI reading is less than 30. The asset is overbought, possibly overvalued, and could have a pullback if the RSI is over 70. It is computed by contrasting the size of recent gains and losses across a time frame, usually 14 days.
According to TradingView, the weekly chart’s Bitcoin RSI is currently barely below 37, indicating that it is nearing oversold territory. The bear market bottom in December 2022, when Bitcoin was selling at $16,500, was the last time it was this low in this time frame. It increased by 660% during the course of the following two and a half years, reaching its highest point in October of this year. On a weekly basis, it continues to be in an upward trend.
Bittel Links Bitcoin Cycle to Government Debt Refinancing
Several economists, like Bittel, predict that the bull market cycle will continue till 2026. He contended that, rather than the Bitcoin halving, the historical four-year trend was caused by cycles of government debt refinancing. Additionally, he said that this cycle was delayed by a year due to post-COVID budgetary policy.
As we’ve outlined many times, based on our work on the business cycle, the current path of financial conditions, and our expectations for overall liquidity, the balance of probabilities is that this cycle extends well into 2026.
Bittel
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