Featured News Headlines
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Slow Melt-Up or Short-Term Pullback?
Bitcoin Price Analysis – Bitcoin has been on a wild ride lately, soaring to fresh all-time highs (ATH) and stirring excitement across the crypto world. Yet, according to Michael Harvey, head of franchise trading at Galaxy Digital, the cryptocurrency might be gearing up for a short consolidation phase before it continues its upward march.
Consolidation Likely After Recent Rally
“Consolidation around current prices is my base case given the large rally and new ATH,” Harvey told Cointelegraph. After hitting a new high of $122,884 on Monday, Bitcoin retraced slightly to around $118,098 as of publication, according to Nansen data. This pullback is typical following such rapid gains, allowing the market to catch its breath.
Harvey believes this pause could last a few weeks but expects Bitcoin to keep trending higher as we move toward the end of 2025. He stated, “I do expect BTC to trend higher into the year-end, but pausing here for air would be realistic.”
Best Case: A Slow “Melt-Up” Into Month-End
Harvey painted a scenario where Bitcoin continues a slow melt-up — a gradual and steady rise — through July’s end. For this to materialize, a few key factors need to align: continued strong inflows into U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs, ongoing accumulation by Bitcoin treasury firms, and a boost in retail investor demand.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently posted impressive inflows, and Bitcoin treasury firms have been steadily increasing their holdings. The missing piece? Retail demand. While Coinbase’s rise to No. 137 on the U.S. Apple App Store hints at growing retail interest, Google search trends for “Bitcoin” remain low, suggesting that the broader public has yet to jump on the bandwagon.
Bitcoin Bear Case: A Dip Below $110,000 Possible
On the flip side, Harvey warned of a downside risk. The bear case scenario involves a risk-off market move driven by profit-taking or a broader weakness in equity markets, which could send Bitcoin prices tumbling by 5-10% — potentially dipping below $110,000.
This correction would be a natural reaction after a prolonged rally and could provide an opportunity for new buyers to enter. However, it underscores the market’s vulnerability to broader macroeconomic forces and investor sentiment.
Historical Cycle Patterns Suggest October Peak
Adding to the discussion, crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently pointed out that Bitcoin’s current cycle might have only a few months of price expansion remaining. His prediction is based on the historical pattern observed since the 2020 halving.
If the current cycle mirrors 2020’s trajectory, the market is likely to peak around October 2025, roughly 550 days after the April 2024 Bitcoin halving. This would imply that after the peak, Bitcoin might enter a period of consolidation or decline before the next cycle begins.
What This Means for Investors and Traders
While it’s tempting to focus solely on Bitcoin’s price action, the bigger picture involves a delicate balance between institutional inflows, retail interest, and macroeconomic conditions. The performance of spot Bitcoin ETFs and accumulation by treasury firms indicates strong institutional conviction.
Retail investors, however, appear cautious or slow to re-engage, which could temper Bitcoin’s near-term gains. Meanwhile, potential equity market downturns and profit-taking by short-term holders may introduce volatility.
Bitcoin’s recent surge to new ATHs has certainly captured the crypto community’s imagination. Yet, as Galaxy Digital’s Michael Harvey and analyst Rekt Capital highlight, a period of consolidation or a moderate pullback could be on the horizon before the next leg up. The key drivers to watch in the coming weeks will be ETF inflows, treasury firm activity, and whether retail demand finally kicks into gear.
For now, the crypto market remains poised on a knife’s edge — ready for either a slow climb or a healthy pause. Either way, Bitcoin’s path through 2025 will be one of the most closely watched stories in the digital asset space.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies and stocks, particularly in micro-cap companies, are subject to significant volatility and risk. Please conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
