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Bitcoin Breach of 365-Day MA Sparks Analyst Warnings
Bitcoin’s recent price action has raised concerns among market analysts after slipping below the crucial $102,000 level. According to on-chain experts, the inability to reclaim this threshold promptly could signal heightened market risk and a potential shift in momentum.
The 365-Day Moving Average: A Bear Market Indicator
Julio Moreno, Head of Research at CryptoQuant, emphasized the technical importance of Bitcoin’s 365-day Moving Average (MA). Posting on X (formerly Twitter) on Wednesday, Moreno stated that Bitcoin’s latest move below this line mirrors conditions seen before the 2022 bear market.
“It was the final confirmation of the start of the 2022 bear market,” Moreno explained, underscoring the MA’s historical reliability as a predictive indicator.
During that period, Bitcoin’s failure to stay above the 365-day MA in late 2022 triggered a prolonged downtrend that defined the so-called “crypto winter.” A recovery attempt in March 2023 also faltered, confirming bearish momentum.
Bitcoin finally broke back above the 365-day MA later in 2023, marking the formal end of the downturn. The price then moved sideways for nearly a year before igniting the strong rally that closed out the year.
The MA as Support in Bull Markets
Historically, the 365-day MA has acted as a crucial support line during uptrends. Moreno highlighted two recent examples reinforcing its importance.
In August 2024, Bitcoin faced intense selling pressure during the Yen carry-trade unwind, briefly dropping 10% in a single day before finding support at the 365-day MA and rebounding strongly. Similarly, in April 2025, market volatility following U.S. trade tariff announcements again pushed prices down toward this line—only for Bitcoin to bounce back, maintaining its broader bullish structure.
A Critical Juncture Ahead
At present, the 365-day MA sits at $102,063, placing Bitcoin’s current price just below this vital level. Moreno cautioned that a quick recovery is essential, stating:
“The price needs to cross back above it quickly.”
This assessment aligns with data from Glassnode’s “Top Buyers Cost Basis Distribution”, which analyzes the average purchase prices of top market participants. Together, these metrics suggest that maintaining strength above the 365-day MA is key to preserving the bullish outlook.
