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Bitcoin News – Bitcoin Up, Stock Down: What’s Going Wrong With Semler Scientific?
Bitcoin News – VanEck’s Matthew Sigel has issued a stark warning to public companies buying Bitcoin, urging them to reconsider their strategies as stock prices decouple from Bitcoin’s rising value. The caution comes amid Semler Scientific Inc. (NASDAQ: SMLR) approaching a critical threshold — with its stock trading near or even below its net asset value (NAV) based on its Bitcoin holdings.
Semler’s Stock Tumbles Despite Growing Bitcoin Holdings
Semler Scientific, a medical technology company, began accumulating Bitcoin (BTC) in May 2024 and has since amassed 3,808 BTC, currently worth around $404.6 million. This makes it the 13th largest Bitcoin-holding public firm globally. However, despite Bitcoin reaching new highs — recently priced at $106,969 — Semler’s stock price has plummeted by over 45% in 2024, pulling its market capitalization down to approximately $434.7 million.
As a result, its multiple of net asset value (mNAV) has dropped to 0.821x, according to Coinkite data, raising red flags among analysts.
Dilution Risk and Strategic Safeguards
According to Sigel, VanEck’s Head of Digital Assets Research, companies using at-the-market (ATM) equity offerings to fund Bitcoin purchases face the risk of shareholder dilution when stock prices approach NAV.
“No public company has sustained trading below NAV — but Semler is nearing parity,” he noted in a post on X (formerly Twitter). Sigel recommends that firms pause ATM offerings if their shares trade below 0.95x NAV for 10 consecutive days, and instead consider share buybacks when BTC appreciates but equity fails to reflect that growth.
Rethinking Strategy and Executive Compensation
Sigel also called for a strategic review if the NAV discount persists, suggesting options like mergers, spinoffs, or abandoning the Bitcoin accumulation strategy altogether.
Additionally, he advised that executive compensation should be tied to NAV per share growth, not the size of the Bitcoin stack or share issuance.
“Once you are trading at NAV, shareholder dilution becomes extractive, not strategic,” Sigel emphasized, urging discipline before optionality is lost.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrencies and stocks, particularly in micro-cap companies, are subject to significant volatility and risk. Please conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
