Bitcoin could be poised for a rally to $116,000 by the end of the month, according to leading crypto analyst Markus Thielen, as multiple macroeconomic tailwinds align in favor of the digital asset.
In a recent report shared with Cointelegraph, Thielen — head of research at 10x Research — outlined three key factors that may drive Bitcoin’s price higher in the coming weeks: renewed strength in spot Bitcoin ETF inflows, heightened uncertainty around U.S. Federal Reserve policy, and a sharp reduction in Bitcoin reserves held on centralized exchanges.
“Bitcoin is pressing against the upper end of its consolidation range right as macro catalysts are lining up in a potentially explosive way,” Thielen explained.
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Institutional Demand Through ETF Inflows
One of the most notable indicators, according to Thielen, is the robust flow of capital into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Despite recording their first net outflow day on Wednesday after 15 consecutive days of inflows, the trend reflects increasing institutional appetite.

“These inflows are decoupling from short-term price action and suggest deeper macro-driven interest, particularly from institutional players,” he said.
Since May 1, U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted nearly $10 billion in capital, accounting for roughly 20% of their cumulative inflows since launching in January 2024, per data from Farside Investors.
Thielen noted that this surge may have been indirectly influenced by political dynamics, especially U.S. presidential candidate Donald Trump’s recent criticisms of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
“Trump’s rhetoric could be sparking a third wave of ETF accumulation, as markets begin pricing in a potential shift in monetary policy direction,” he suggested.
Potential Fed Shake-Up Spurs Speculation
Looking ahead, Thielen speculates that a Trump administration could push for a change at the helm of the Federal Reserve. A new chair, presumably more dovish, may opt for rate cuts — a development historically supportive of Bitcoin’s price.
“A shift toward looser monetary policy under a new Fed leadership would likely echo the inflationary backdrop of the 1970s,” Thielen said, referencing former Fed chair Arthur Burns’ politically influenced tenure.
Exchange Outflows Point to Growing Scarcity
In tandem with ETF interest, a notable on-chain trend has emerged: Bitcoin balances on crypto exchanges are falling rapidly. According to Thielen, this marks the longest sustained decline in exchange-held Bitcoin since 2020 — a period that preceded the last major bull run.
“We’re now at 98 straight days of net outflows from exchanges,” Thielen said. “This persistent drawdown suggests increasing scarcity and mounting upward pressure.”
He emphasized that such patterns have historically been strong precursors to major breakout rallies.
Bitcoin’s Path to $116,000
With BTC currently trading around $108,990, a move to $116,000 would reflect a 6.45% increase from its current price and a 3.6% gain over its all-time high of $111,970, based on data from CoinMarketCap.
Whether or not Bitcoin reaches the six-figure mark this month remains to be seen, but Thielen remains optimistic.
“The technicals, macro backdrop, and investor behavior are aligning in a way that suggests the next leg higher may be imminent,” he concluded.
