Ancient Bitcoin Supply Surpasses Daily Issuance, Reinforcing Scarcity Narrative
A significant shift is unfolding within Bitcoin’s long-term supply dynamics. According to a June 18 report by Fidelity Digital Assets, an average of 566 BTC per day is being added to the so-called “ancient supply” — Bitcoin that has remained dormant for extended periods — surpassing the current daily issuance rate of 450 BTC. This marks the first time in Bitcoin’s history that coins held by long-term holders are growing at a faster pace than new coins entering circulation.
Fidelity research analyst Zack Wainwright highlighted the growing influence of these ultra-long-term holders, stating, “The strong conviction of these ultra-long-term holders is having an increasing influence on the wider Bitcoin ecosystem.”
The ancient supply, now exceeding 3.4 million BTC—or roughly 17% of Bitcoin’s total supply—has been expanding steadily, particularly following the 2024 halving event. Notably, a substantial portion of this category includes coins attributed to Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto, though a significant share is presumed permanently inaccessible.
However, the trend has shown signs of fluctuation since the 2024 U.S. election. Fidelity’s analysis indicates that following the election, ancient supply has seen daily declines on 39% of days—a sharp increase compared to the historical average of just 13%. This suggests that some long-term holders may be moving coins or realizing profits amid heightened market uncertainty.
“This long-term holder movement may help explain some of the sideways and downward price action observed during the first quarter of 2025,” Wainwright noted. “It also shows that even when ancient supply outpaces new issuance, it does not guarantee upward price movement in the short term, as shifts in supply behavior can create short-term market headwinds.”
Despite entering what many expected to be a peak phase of the bull market cycle, BTC has recorded only a modest 12% gain year-to-date.
Wainwright suggested that long-term accumulation and the steady rise of ancient supply may become a defining feature of Bitcoin’s market structure, especially as institutional adoption grows and new digital asset investment vehicles emerge. “This is one of the most unique attributes of Bitcoin that no other existing investment or commodity currently possesses — and one that could become increasingly important if demand rises alongside this growing ancient supply.”
Meanwhile, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has observed a shift in profit-taking behavior across different market cohorts, adding another layer of complexity to BTC’s evolving market dynamics.
