BTC Price Analysis: Recovery Hindered by Weak Money Flow
Bitcoin narrowly sidestepped a deeper breakdown this week, bouncing 2.1% in the past 24 hours to trade near $103,700 after briefly dipping to around $98,900. While the move helped stabilize market sentiment, analysts warn that the cryptocurrency is far from entering a full recovery.
Bearish Signals Loom on Daily Charts
On the daily chart, Bitcoin faces mounting pressure from a potential bearish crossover between the 20-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs). This technical setup, which occurs when a shorter-term EMA dips below a longer-term EMA, typically indicates weakening buyer strength. A similar event involving the 50-day and 100-day EMAs on November 4 preceded a sharp 10% drop, highlighting the risk of another downward move if the crossover materializes.
Meanwhile, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remains negative, signaling that capital is still leaving the market. CMF has hovered below zero since late October and remains trapped under a downtrend line from October 4, suggesting that large holders have yet to return. Together, the weakening EMAs and subdued money flows underscore why the recent rebound feels fragile.
Source: TradingView
Hodlers Remain on the Sidelines
Long-term Bitcoin holders, or hodlers, are also showing little conviction. The Hodler Net Position Change fell from –43,810 BTC to –52,250 BTC between November 2 and 5, a 19.2% decline, indicating that hodlers sold roughly 8,400 BTC during the recovery. Historically, strong rebounds have coincided with hodlers accumulating more coins, meaning the current rally is largely trader-driven.
For Bitcoin to regain bullish momentum, it must hold above $103,000 and reclaim $105,600. A decisive break above $116,500 — approximately 12% above current levels — would invalidate the ongoing bearish head and shoulders pattern and signal a stronger recovery. Conversely, failing to maintain $103,000 risks revisiting $98,900, with a potential drop toward $83,100 if the neckline breaks.
For now, Bitcoin has avoided disaster, but weak inflows, hodler selling, and looming bearish signals suggest that caution remains warranted.
